Gale Warning 85, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1255 PM AST SUN NOV 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ROUGHLY OVER 62N/176W WITH A 130KT 300MB JET EXITING BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH. 12Z GFS LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD PERSPECTIVE ON POSITION AND
DEPTH OF LOW...ALTHOUGH AT THE SURFACE THE GFS AND NAM HAVE
PRESSURES A FEW MILLIBARS TOO LOW VERSUS THE ACTUAL STRENGTH SHOWN
ON MSAS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN LIFTING LOW NORTHWEST OVER
FAR EASTERN RUSSIA AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO MOTHER LOW OVER
SIBERIA. SHARP/NARROW UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA MOVES EAST
TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY 12Z TUE. UPPER FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVE
OVER ALASKA THEREAFTER...ENDING THE LONG STRETCH OF THE BLOCKY
RIDGE AND BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN.

.NORTH SLOPE...QUIET WEATHER FROM BARROW EAST. WEST OF BARROW...WIND
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE IN ZONES 201/205 THROUGH 00Z TUE. SYSTEM
MOVING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 40 MPH
AND 50 MPH TO THESE ZONES. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY TRAVERSE FROM BARROW EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA
COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA RELATIVELY
DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AREAS WEST OF BARROW WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AS WEATHER SYSTEMS IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
ARCTIC COAST.

.WEST COAST...BUSY...WITH A PLETHORA OF ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS
IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SNOW ALONG WITH WINDS ARE
CREATING BLIZZARD/AND OR NEAR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS OVER
SEVERAL ZONES. SEE DETAILS BELOW AND IN THE ZFP FOR SPECIFICS.
IDEA HERE IS FOR THESE WARNINGS TO WANE MONDAY MORNING...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH THAT THINKING. ONLY CONCERN ARE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
ZONES 215 AND 216 TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE 12Z NAM AND GFS
ARE FORECASTING LIQUID AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.9 OVER A 24HR
PERIOD. TEMPS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 0F AND 10F...AND THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE BETWEEN 10F AND 20F DURING THE SNOW EVENT. AT
THESE TEMPS...AM ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO EASILY
EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 4 INCHES WITHIN 24 HOURS AND REACH
INTO THE WARNING CRITERIA OF 8 INCHES OR GREATER. THUS HAVE OPTED
FOR HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS FOR THESE ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z
TUE...MENTIONING 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH 9 INCHES THE AVERAGE. WIND
HEADLINES ALSO COVER NORTHWEST ALASKA ZONES 208/209 THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPGRADED WIND HEADLINE IN ZONE 207 TO A HIGH WIND
WARNING UNTIL 12Z MONDAY...AS POINT HOPE HAS SEEN WIND GUSTS TO
53KT AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

.INTERIOR...WILL CONTINUE THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR ZONES 223
AND 226 THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. EXPECTING THE TANANA VALLEY JET TO
SUBSIDE EARLY MONDAY...THUS WEAKENING THE WINDS AND EXTREMELY COLD
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...RIDGE MOVES EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN VERSUS RECENT
WEEKS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW GENERALLY DOMINATES WITH WARMER TEMPS
AND BETTER PROSPECTS OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAVY SNOW WARNING FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ211.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ207.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ210-AKZ212.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

KS/MAR NOV 06