Gale Warning 76, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
107 PM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...

THERE ARE TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FORECAST
AREA. A 988 MB LOW MOVING UP THE ALCAN BORDER WILL BE THE WEATHER
MAKER FOR THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ITS FIRST NOTEABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON.
A 995 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE YUKON DELTA IS KICKING UP RAIN AND
DRIZZLE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND LOWER KOYUKUK VALLEY.

THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT
AND TIMING OF THE ALCAN BORDER LOW. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
HOW THE WEST COAST LOW TRAVELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE
WOULD PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION DUE TO ITS HANDLING OF PAST BERING
SEA LOWS.

THE ALCAN BORDER LOW HAS TAKEN A TRACK THAT WILL RESULT IN THE
LARGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EAST OF FAIRBANKS. BUT FAIRBANKS WILL
SILL RECEIVE ITS MUCH ANTICIPATED BASE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ONCE
THE LOW HEADS NORTH INTO MACKENZIE BAY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...IT
WILL LEAVE BEHIND WESTERLY FLOW...THAT COMBINED WITH ADEQUATE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...BUT
IN SMALLER AMOUNTS THAN ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTH SLOPE CAN EXPECT QUITE AN EXCITING
WEEKEND FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND
STRENGHTEN ONCE IT HITS MACKENZIE BAY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
RESULTING IN A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT THAT WILL BRING GALE FORCE
WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ON MONDAY.

THE WEST COAST CAN EXPECT TO BE AFFECTED BY THE 995 MB LOW FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND AS IT SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OVER THE
SEWARD PENINSULA. FOR THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST...THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. KOTZEBUE
CAN EXPECT TO SEE SOME SNOW BY THIS EVENING.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAY 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NIL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

KA/MAR OCT 06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1038 AM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1033 AM     SNOW             16 NE MANSFIELD VILLAGE 63.60N 143.00W
10/21/2006  M0.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW AND STILL SNOWING

1033 AM     SNOW             16 NE MANSFIELD VILLAGE 63.60N 143.00W
10/21/2006  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STILL SNOWING

&&

SBERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1144 AM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 AM     SNOW             DELTA JUNCTION          64.06N 145.71W
10/21/2006  E1.5 INCH                           AK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS HAVE ICED OVER VERY SLICK

&&

SBERG