Gale Warning 75, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
600 AM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER AIR: A 509 DM LOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS
WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE RUSSIAN GULF OF ANADYR BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE LOW WILL MOVE WEST OVER RUSSIA ON TUESDAY. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER WESTERN ALASKA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE WESTERN CENTRAL
INTERIOR TO NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON
MONDAY MORNING THE AXIS WILL EXTEND NORTH OVER WESTERN CANADA TO
MACKENZIE BAY. THE RIDGE MAY FLATTEN OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

SURFACE: A 965 MB LOW...DIRECTLY UNDER UPPER LEVEL LOW...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTH.
BY MONDAY EVENING THE LOW WILL BE 975 MB OVER THE RUSSIAN GULF OF
ANADYR. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVER RUSSIA MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

NORTH SLOPE: MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG BERING
SEA LOW WILL REMAIN WEST OF BARROW. ONGOING DRY WEATHER EAST OF
BARROW WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY
BECOME MODERATE FROM BARROW WEST ON MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF BARROW.

WEST COAST: RAIN HAS SPREAD NORTH TO NOME THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE WEST COAST ZONES TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
WINDS WILL LIKELY RISE QUICKLY AT NOME THIS MORNING AND ALSO RISE
OVER THE REST OF THE WEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY. WARNING LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BERING SEA LOW APPROACHES CLOSER. MODELS ARE IN NEAR AGREEMENT
CONCERNING TRACK AND DEPTH OF LOW MOVING NORTH TOWARD SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND.

INTERIOR: DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MAY BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAY 1 THROUGH 4...WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY
OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THEN BECOME SOUTH IN THE MORNING OF DAY
2 FOR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON SOUND. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH OVER THE REST OF THE WEST COAST ZONES BY MONDAY EVENING. THE
THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING FROM THIS STORM WILL BE MAINLY FOR
PLACES MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FROM SOUTH WINDS. THE PERIOD OF STRONG
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE RATHER SHORT...LASTING LESS THAN
12 HOURS BEFORE A SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THEREFORE SOUTH
FACING COASTAL AREAS SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST
INCLUDING NOME...AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST INCLUDING LITTLE
DIOMEDE AND WALES WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR COASTAL FLOODING.
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH
AS TO THE SOUTH...THEREFORE COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT AS LIKELY TO
THE NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT...THOUGH HIGH SURF WITH EROSION IS
EXPECTED. THE LAGOON SIDE OF SHISHMAREF MAY ALSO HAVE SOME EROSION.

&&

.MARINE...STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS...NORTON SOUND...WALES TO CAPE
THOMPSON...AND CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO GALE FORCE TODAY FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WATERS...TONIGHT
FOR NORTON SOUND...AND MONDAY FOR WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON AND CAPE
THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT. KOTZEBUE SOUND MAY ALSO HAVE GALE FORCE
WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ207-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

DA OCT 06