Gale Warning 67, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
133 PM ADT MON OCT 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...STRONG S FLOW AIDED BY 100+ KT JET PUSHING
N FROM GULF AK EXTENDS N OVER INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE.
DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH 965 MB SURFACE CENTER
LIES OVER NORTON SOUND WHILE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT HAS
TRIPLE POINT NEAR PAOM. WARM FRONT PUSHED N OVER INTERIOR
BETWEEN 12-15Z AND IS CURRENTLY OVER BROOKS RANGE WHILE
TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPS SE AND S FROM PAOM-PAGA-PAMC-PADQ.

MODELS IN LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON 12Z RUNS. NAM INITIALIZED
PABE SURFACE LOW AT 968 MB WHILE GFS CAME IN AT 970. ALL
MODELS SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH 60 HRS. AND ACCEPTED
WHILE GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT EVEN THROUGH 120 HRS.

TRIPLE POINT LOW NEAR PAOM PUSHES N OVER BERING STRAIT TUE
AND CHUKCHI SEA TUE NIGHT/WED. THEN IT LIFTS NE ACROSS
ARCTIC OCEAN LATE WED/THU...DRAGGING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
N SLOPE THEN. MAIN SURFACE LOW CENTER WEAKENS TUE/TUE NIGHT
AS JET SUPPORT FADES...THEN LIFTS WNW ACROSS WRN INTERIOR
AND BROOKS RANGE WED. REMNANTS OF THE STRONG W COAST SYSTEM
AS SURFACE/UPPER TROUGHING SLIDE E ACROSS INTERIOR WED/THU.

N SLOPE: HIGH WIND EVENT DUE TO GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH
W OF AND OVER WRN CANADIAN ARCTIC AND W COAST LOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MARITIME ARCTIC INVERSION BEING MAINTAINED
BY THIS ERLY INFLOW OF COLD AIR. S WINDS FORECAST BY MODELS TO
BREAK THROUGH TUE MORNING ALONG N SLOPE. THIS WILL RAISE TEMPS.
ABOVE FREEZING AND WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE WED WILL RETURN COOLING AND BRING BACK
SOME -SN. SOME -SN TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONTAL FEATURE ALOFT COULD
CREATE LOCAL BLIZ. CONDITIONS.

W COAST: GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND LOW MOVING N THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ALONG WITH RAIN...CONTINUING INTO TUE. AS REMAINS OF
SYSTEM MOVE E TUE NIGHT/WED...TEMPS. COOL ENOUGH FOR PRECIP.
TO MIX BACK WITH SNOW. ANOTHER FRONT FROM LOW MOVING INTO ERN
SIBERIA MAY BRING GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

INTERIOR: STRONG CHINOOK WITH 50+ KT 700 MB SRLY FLOW WILL BRING
LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS TO 70 MPH ZONES 223/225/226 LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THESE WILL DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TUE BUT
WILL PICK UP A LITTLE AGAIN WED AHEAD OF SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH.
SURFACE/UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WED/THU WILL BRING GUSTY SWRLY WINDS
TO HIGHER TERRAIN...ALONG WITH SOME RAIN MIXING BACK TO SNOW. AT
THIS TIME...MODELS NOT SHOWING HEAVY ENOUGH PRECIP. AND COLD
ENOUGH TEMPS. FOR LOWER VALLEYS TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THU.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAY 3 AND 4...FRONT APPROACHING ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND THU NIGHT MAY BRING GALE FORCE WINDS...BUT AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST BY MODELS...NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RHS TO STAY NEAR OR SLIGHT ABOVE 40 PERCENT REST
OF TODAY...AND AGAIN TUE/WED. NO RFWS WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NIL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ217.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-AKZ206-
AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200.
&&

MAR OCT 06