Gale Warning 38, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
430 PM AST FRI MAR 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA REMAINS NOTICEABLY DEEPER THAN THE
MODELS WOULD HAVE IT...PROBABLY NOT MUCH ABOVE 974 MB AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...THEY DIFFER IN THEIR EXPECTED TRACK FOR THE THING.
WE HAVE THE ORIGINAL LOW FILLING AROUND 990 MB BETWEEN SAINT
PAUL ISLAND AND NUNIVAK ISLAND SAT AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS DIFFUSE FROM ABOUT GAMBELL TO SAINT
MARYS AND SOUTHWARD ALONG ABOUT 160W.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW
SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO BE BETWEEN
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND AND SAINT PAUL ISLAND AT 3AM SUN...THOUGH
NOT NEARLY AS DEEP AS OUR CURRENT LOW...AROUND 990 MB. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD THIS LOW FILLING SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND SUN
AFTERNOON...BUT THE 18Z GFS MAINTAINS IT AS THE STRONGEST CENTER
SUN NIGHT AND MON...MERGING THE CENTER DISCUSSED BELOW WITH IT
AS IT CONTINUES EAST.

THE WEATHER FRONT REMAINS ACTIVE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG
ABOUT 160W. A THIRD LOW HAS DEVELOPED ON THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO BE ABOUT 988 MB OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
ALASKA AT 3AM SAT. WHETHER THIS LOW MERGES WITH LOW #2 ABOVE...
OR BECOMES THE MAIN CENTER ITSELF...THE MODELS GIVE THE RESULTING
SYSTEM LITTLE PLAY OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. PROBABLY FLURRIES AT
MOST SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

MODERATE TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEARLY ALL OF NORTHERN
ALASKA WILL PERSIST...THOUGH THE DETAILS WILL VARY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ224.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ211.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

DJH MAR 06