Gale Warning 31, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
152 PM AST WED MAR 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MAP...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS FROM SIBERIAN
ARCTIC SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. CLOSED HIGH
OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN LYING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN SUPPORTING SPEEDY FLOW FROM WESTERN ALEUTIANS ACROSS GULF OF
ALASKA INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE. AT THE SURFACE...
STRENGTHENING LOW IN THE 990S MB NEAR KAMCHATKA NUDGED AGAINST
SURFACE RIDGE POKING FROM EASTERN SIBERIA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
BRISTOL BAY...WITH STRONG LOW IN THE 960S MB ENJOYING DYNAMIC
ENHANCEMENT FROM ALOFT OVER YAKUTAT. CIRCULATION ABOUT YAKUTAT LOW
PUSHING BACK DOOR SNOW EVENT INTO TANANA VALLEY AND EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE...WHILE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TUGGED DOWN THE WEST COAST
PRODUCING 50 BELOW WIND CHILL FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA NORTHWARD
WITH BLIZZARD BLAST ONGOING FOR THE NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA
COAST.

MODELS...GOOD CONSENSUS SOLUTION DIGS HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
ALOFT SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND BUILDS
RIDGE ALOFT FROM NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN NORTHWARD OVER THE BERING
SEA ON THURSDAY. RIDGE STRENGTHENS FRIDAY TO CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
INTERIOR...BUT DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER KAMCHATKA WILL
PROVIDE DYNAMIC MUSCLE FOR STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA AND RETURN ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTER WEATHER FOR WEST COAST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND HANGING IN THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NORTH SLOPE...AS TOUGH SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST INTERIOR DRIFTS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE PANHANDLE...SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM
SIBERIA EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH THURSDAY. PATTERN
WILL USHER IN ANOTHER SLUG OF COLD WHICH WILL WORK TEMPERATURES
LOWER FROM BARROW WESTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND SPREAD
EASTWARD TO PRUDHOE BAY AND THE CANADA BORDER ON FRIDAY. WITH
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER PRUDHOE BAY...EXPECT REDUCED WIND WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES TO GENERATE LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT WIND
CHILL NEAR 50 BELOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...USUAL ROUNDS OF ICY FOG AND FLURRIES AS COLD AIR
PUSHES FROM WEST TO EAST. ARCTIC MARINERS...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVES THE FLAG LOCKER A BREAK FOR
NOW. SOME SPEEDS PUSHING BRISK CRITERIA A POSSIBILITY NEAR CAPE
LISBURNE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

WEST COAST...TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN YAKUTAT LOW
AND SIBERIAN HIGH WILL RELAX RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS YAKUTAT LOW
WANDERS SOUTHEAST TO SITKA TONIGHT. AS WINDS DROP TONIGHT...EXPECT
BLIZZARD AND BLOWING SNOW TO EASE BUT WIND CHILLS MAY REMAIN A
PROBLEM AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTH. NEXT ACTION WILL BE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW IN WESTERN BERING SEA GRINDS
AGAINST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALASKAN INTERIOR TO KICK
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF BLIZZARDS AND BLOWING SNOW BEGINNING OVER
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE YUKON DELTA. WESTERN BERING SURFACE
LOW WILL HAVE TROUBLE WORKING TOO MUCH FURTHER EAST WITH PATH
DYNAMICALLY BLOCKED BY RIDGE ALOFT...BUT CIRCULATION ON THE WARM
SIDE WILL BATHE WEST COAST FROM SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD IN
STEADY ROUNDS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME WARMING GRADUALLY WORKING NORTHWARD WITH THIS...AND RESULTING
CHANGE IN SNOW MICROPHYSICS WILL HELP EASE BLOWING SNOW FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH INTO NORTON SOUND FOR THE WEEKEND. WESTERN ALASKA
MARINERS...BUSY TIME AT THE FLAG LOCKER AS BRISK WINDS WORKING UP
TO GALES THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND
WORKING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO BERING STRAIT AND THE YUKON
DELTA BY FRIDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH RELIEF EXPECTED ON THIS BASIC
PATTERN UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND AT BEST.

INTERIOR...BACK DOOR CLOSING TONIGHT ON TANANA VALLEY SNOW AS
CONTROLLING SURFACE LOW PULLS OUT OF YAKUTAT BOUND FOR CANADA AND
LAST OF ZIPPY WINDS PRODUCE SOME OVERNIGHT BLOWING SNOW AS THEY
LEAVE. RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN INTERIOR AND
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY WILL CLEAR SKIES
AND EXPOSE AREA TO MAXIMUM BENEFITS OF DAYTIME SOLAR INSOLATION
AND NIGHTTIME RADIATIONAL COOLING. CLOUDS AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH
WEST COAST EXCITEMENT WILL HAVE TROUBLE PENETRATING MUCH FURTHER
EAST THAN THE NULATO HILLS WITH RIDGE LOCKED IN OVERHEAD.

MEDIUM RANGE...SOLUTION MAINTAINS TENACIOUS RIDGE ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH TROUGHS
DIGGING SOUTH AND SWINGING EAST FROM KAMCHATKA TO SMASH THE WEST
COAST...AND ARCTIC COUNTERPARTS DIGGING SOUTH TO SMASH THE RIDGE
TOP OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. PATTERN SUPPORTS CONTINUED STORMY ACTION
FOR WEST COAST AND BERING SEA WITH WIND CHILL PROBLEMS FOR THE
NORTH SLOPE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ213.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ210.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ224-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215.
&&

TS MAR 06

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