Gale Warning 26, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
546 AM AST SAT FEB 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE
988 MB LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA NORTH OF THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA.
WHERE THEY DIFFER (IN THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
FILLS)...WE LEAN TOWARD THE GFS. THAT...AND EXPERIENCE...LEAD
US TO EXPECT A 1002 MB CENTER NEAR CAPE ESPENBERG AT 3AM SUN...
BY WHICH TIME LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL COVER
ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW IS NEARLY OCCLUDED (IF NOT FULLY OCCLUDED) NOW AND CONTINUES
RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST. WE EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE DIFFUSE FROM
ABOUT BARROW TO PRUDHOE BAY AT 3PM TODAY...THOUGH STILL FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED FROM ABOUT FORT YUKON TO DELTA. IT WILL BE OFF THE
ARCTIC COAST AND OVER THE CANADIAN BORDER BY 9PM.

THE CENTER ALOFT WILL TURN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...DROPPING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA MON NIGHT...WHERE IT WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL PROBABLY GET DOWN TO ABOUT 980 MB SOONER OR LATER.
THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF MAY PRODUCE SOME BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR MON NIGHT AND TUE...THOUGH
THE MODELS ARE NOT GIVING THIS MUCH PLAY AT THIS TIME. THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW (COMBINED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION) WILL
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES...BUT
PROBABLY NOT EVEN TO THE ADVISORY LEVEL.

THE COLDER AIR COMING IN AT LOW LEVELS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
WITH US UNTIL TUESDAY ON THE WEST COAST...AND UNTIL THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR...WITH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ217-AKZ219.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-
AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ206-AKZ216-AKZ218-AKZ220-
AKZ221-AKZ222.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240.
&&

DJH FEB 06