Gale Warning 20, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
323 AM AST TUE FEB 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...LOW PRESSURE 425 MILES NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL MOVE EAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE BUILDS. ON FRI THE GFS HAS
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO OVER
THE SOUNDS TO BARROW. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ALONG
65N FROM THE WESTERN BERING SEA TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA THIS
EVENING THROUGH WED EVENING AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM THE WEST. ON
WED AFTERNOON THE LOW WILL BE JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR SCAMMON BAY.
THU NIGHT...THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH THE RIDGE
WELL DEVELOPED OVER THE BERING SEA. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
ARCTIC WILL FLATTEN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE STATE. ON SAT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST OUT OF
RUSSIA AND BE CENTERED NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE SAT AFTERNOON.

SURFACE...A 984 MB LOW 500 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PRUDHOE BAY
WILL BE 990 MB 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF PRUDHOE BAY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN WED THROUGH THU. A TROUGH
FROM THE LOW EXTENDS TO NEAR POINT BARROW AND SOUTHWEST NEAR THE
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST. THE TROUGH WILL LIE ALONG THE NORTH COAST
WED MORNING. ON THU MORNING...THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW
WEST OVER MACKENZIE BAY TO THE CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST. THE
TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THU NIGHT. OVER BERING SEA...LOW PRESSURE
DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL MOVE EAST ALONG 65N
FROM THE WESTERN BERING SEA THIS MORNING TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA
ON WED AFTERNOON...THEN TO THE GULF OF ALASKA THU EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WED THEN THE
EASTERN BERING SEA THU. ON THU AFTERNOON...CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTH OVER SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TO NORTH OF POINT
BARROW. LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE...OVER RUSSIA WILL
MOVE EAST AND BRING A WARM FRONT WELL AHEAD OF IT OVER THE WEST
COAST ON FRI. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF RUSSIA ON SAT AND
STRENGTHEN NORTHWEST OF CAPE LISBURNE.

NORTH SLOPE...MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH WED
THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC
MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS. A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
SETTLE OVER THE NORTH SLOPE TUE NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE THU AS A RIDGE BUILDS NORTH FROM
THE BERING SEA. EXCEPT FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST...THE RIDGE WILL MAKE
THU A DAY WITHOUT MUCH FLURRY ACTIVITY OR WIND. SOUTH WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON FRI OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST AS A WARM FRONT MOVES EAST.

WEST COAST...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK...BUT
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RESPITE ON THU. MODERATE WINDS SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW OVER THE ARCTIC MOVES EAST AND
WEAKENS. ON WED MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST OVER THE SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND AREA AS LOW MOVING RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE BERING
SEA APPROACHES. THE LOW WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR SCAMMON BAY BY WED
EVENING. WARMER AIR AHEAD OF IT WED MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE WED AFTERNOON TO NIGHT FROM SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND TO NORTON SOUND AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GIVE A DAY OF DRY WEATHER ON THU. A WARM FRONT
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND CHUKCHI SEA ON FRI WILL
INCREASE WINDS AND CHANCES OF SNOW. ON SAT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE
NORTHWEST OF CAPE LISBURNE WILL BRING SOUTH WINDS AND SNOW.

INTERIOR...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THU WITH MAINLY JUST
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR
SCAMMON BAY BY WED EVENING THEN MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR
WED NIGHT AND THU TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THAT AREA OF
THE INTERIOR. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE GULF OF ALASKA THU
EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION STAYING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THU THROUGH FRI. A
WARM FRONT MOVING EAST FROM THE WEST COAST ON SAT WILL INCREASE
CHANCES OF SNOW OVER THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL INTERIOR DURING THAT
TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ220.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ205-
AKZ207.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

DA FEB 06