Gale Warning 19, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
540 AM AST SUN FEB 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...974MB SURFACE LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF ZONE 201 IS
MOVING NORTHEAST. WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS LOW HAVE BEEN
VERY STRONG...AS SEEN OVERNIGHT AT KOTZEBUE AND OTHER SITES ALONG
ALASKAS WEST COAST. ETA AND GFS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HANDLING THIS
LOW TODAY...AFTER THAT TIME GFS IS PREFERRED AND IS SIMILAR TO
ECMWF. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
ARCTIC COAST...BLIZZARDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW FOR ZONES 201-204
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AGAIN FOR THE ARCTIC COAST IT IS THE
WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL MAKE THE
BLIZZARD POSSIBLE. BLIZZARDS ON ARCTIC COAST WILL THEN TAPER OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND AWAY
FROM THE ARCTIC COAST.

ON THE WEST COAST...EVENT IS WINDING DOWN AS LOW HEADS NORTHEAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED BY MID DAY
WITH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS AND DIMINISHING BLOWING SNOW. WEST COAST
IS STILL POISED TO GET HIT BY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING IN OFF
THE BERING SEA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE FEATURES
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD POLAR LOW-
LIKE CIRCULATION NOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE BERING SEA. THIS
FEATURE IS BEING PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW...EXPECT THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THIS
CIRCULATION ADVECTS OVER THE SEA ICE.

IN THE INTERIOR...PEDRO DOME RADAR HAS SHOWN FRONTAL PASSAGE
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SOME VERY
WARM AIR MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...INCLUDING A NEW RECORD HIGH AT FAIRBANKS AROUND 1 AM.
TEMPERATURES THEN COOLING TO THE WEST OF THE FONT AS MODERATE LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION SETS IN. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
NORTHERN ZONES TODAY...THEN A MORE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT IN
CONTINUING COLD ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ226.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206-AKZ208-AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ219.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213-
AKZ214-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.
&&

ES FEB 06