Gale Warning 16, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
106 PM AST THU FEB 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH DIFFERENCES MORE SUBTLE.
IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS HAS FINALLY MADE THE TURN TO BE MORE IN
LINE WITH THAT OF THE ETA.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE BEGINNING EARLY
FRIDAY AND WILL LAST ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE CHINOOK FLOW
OVER THE INTERIOR HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE
LAST SCENARIO. ANY COLD AIR WILL NOT REMAIN IN ALASKA BUT WILL STAY
FAR OFF INTO FAR EAST RUSSIA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSITION
EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE FORM OVER A
MAJORITY OF NORTHERN ALASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. COLD
ADVECTION IS ADVERTISED TO BEGIN MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUE ON.

CURRENTLY LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR EASTERN RUSSIA AND A VERY STRONG
1056 MB HIGH IN WESTERN CANADA ARE CREATING A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY NEAR CAPE LISBURNE. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE BERING
SEA FRIDAY AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WEST COAST.

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE TO JUST NORTH OF CAPE
ROMANZOF BY SATURDAY AND CREATE SOME RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS IN
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TO
THE ARCTIC COAST.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ201.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-
PKZ245.
&&

CF FEB 06