Gale Warning 14, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
153 PM AST WED FEB 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS. AT THAT
TIME THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE
LOW MOVING IN FROM WRANGEL ISLAND. WILL GO WITH THE GFS AT THIS
TIME BECAUSE OF RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE ECMWF HAS FLOPPED
PRETTY LARGE IN THE LAST 12 HOUR RUN. IN THE BIG SCHEME OF THINGS
IT DOESNT REALLY MATTER MUCH EXCEPT FOR THE ARCTIC COAST FOR
WINDS AND SOME FRONTAL BOUNDARY SNOW.

THE TREMENDOUS SURGE OF WARM AIR FROM NEAR THE TROPICS HAS SENT
THE ARCTIC COAST TEMPERATURES TO RECORD HIGHS. BARROW WAS 45
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEIR NORMAL HIGH ON TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE WARM FRONT PASSING THROUGH. THIS SET A RECORD FOR BARROW ON
TUE. THE COLD AIR REMAINS POISED OVER FAR EAST RUSSIA AWAITING A
MECHANISM TO TRANSPORT IT EASTWARD. THE LONG RANGE SUGGESTS THAT
BY LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK A LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTER
WILL AGAIN TRANSITION THROUGH ALASKA AND LAST MOST OF THE WEEK.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE NORTHWEST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THU MORNING. THE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE ON THE ARCTIC COAST THU
EVENING AND CREATE BLOWING SNOW.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE ALCAN BORDER
TRANSITIONS EASTWARD...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER
THE STATE. SNOW WILL END OVER THE WEST COAST BY THU MORNING AND
SOME SNOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE MINIMAL COLD FRONT IN THE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

WHEN THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RIDGE TRANSITIONS IN ON FRI AND
SAT IT WILL PUSH SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
RAISE THE HEIGHTS IN THE INTERIOR OF THE ALASKA TILL ABOUT SUN NIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

CF FEB 06