Gale Warning 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000
FZAK52 PAFG 160331 AAA
CWFWCZ

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
631 PM AST WED FEB 15 2006

UPDATED ZONES 200 AND 210 FOR WIND INCREASE TIMING AND VISIBILITIES

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-161315-
631 PM AST WED FEB 15 2006

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 994 MB LOW 440 NM WEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS RUSSIA
AND EMERGE NORTH OF RUSSIA NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND AS A 1004 MB LOW THU
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL CROSS SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND TONIGHT THEN NORTON SOUND...KOTZEBUE SOUND...AND THE CHUKCHI
SEA ON THU. ON FRI AFTERNOON...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWEST
WILL BE 550 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

$$

PKZ200-161315-
NORTON SOUND-
631 PM AST WED FEB 15 2006

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. FOG. SNOW. 
.THU..S WINDS 35 KT. FOG. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-161315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
631 PM AST WED FEB 15 2006

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. SNOW.
.THU...S WINDS 35 KT. FOG. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WINDS 35 KT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-161315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
631 PM AST WED FEB 15 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-161315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
631 PM AST WED FEB 15 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT EARLY THU MORNING.
FOG. SNOW.
.THU...SW WINDS 35 KT. FOG. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

MAR/DA/TS FEB 06

000
FZAK52 PAFG 160355 CCA
CWFWCZ

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
655 PM AST WED FEB 15 2006

CORRECTED ZONE 200 TYPO

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-161345-
655 PM AST WED FEB 15 2006

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 994 MB LOW 440 NM WEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS RUSSIA
AND EMERGE NORTH OF RUSSIA NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND AS A 1004 MB LOW THU
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL CROSS SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND TONIGHT THEN NORTON SOUND...KOTZEBUE SOUND...AND THE CHUKCHI
SEA ON THU. ON FRI AFTERNOON...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWEST
WILL BE 550 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.

$$

PKZ200-161345-
NORTON SOUND-
655 PM AST WED FEB 15 2006

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. FOG. SNOW. 
.THU...S WINDS 35 KT. FOG. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-161345-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
655 PM AST WED FEB 15 2006

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. FOG. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. SNOW.
.THU...S WINDS 35 KT. FOG. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WINDS 35 KT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-161345-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
655 PM AST WED FEB 15 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.THU...S WINDS 30 KT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-161345-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
655 PM AST WED FEB 15 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT EARLY THU MORNING.
FOG. SNOW.
.THU...SW WINDS 35 KT. FOG. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

MAR/DA/TS FEB 06

000
FZAK52 PAFG 161312
CWFWCZ

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
412 AM AST THU FEB 16 2006

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-170315-
412 AM AST THU FEB 16 2006

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR GAMBELL WILL MOVE TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND AS A
1004 MB LOW THU AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE NORTH. A LOW WILL
MOVE NORTH TO THE CENTRAL BERING AS A 992 MB LOW 3AM FRI...AND TO
NEAR ANADYR AS A 980 MB LOW BY 3AM SAT.


$$

PKZ200-170315-
NORTON SOUND-
412 AM AST THU FEB 16 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-170315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
412 AM AST THU FEB 16 2006

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...S WINDS 35 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-170315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
412 AM AST THU FEB 16 2006

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...S WINDS 35 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-170315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
412 AM AST THU FEB 16 2006

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...S WINDS 40 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

FEB 06

000
FZAK52 PAFG 161658
CWFWCZ

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
757 AM AST THU FEB 16 2006

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-170715-
757 AM AST THU FEB 16 2006

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR GAMBELL WILL MOVE TO NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND AS A
1004 MB LOW THU AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE NORTH. A LOW WILL
MOVE NORTH TO THE CENTRAL BERING AS A 992 MB LOW 3AM FRI...AND TO
NEAR ANADYR AS A 980 MB LOW BY 3AM SAT.


$$

PKZ200-170715-
NORTON SOUND-
757 AM AST THU FEB 16 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-170715-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
757 AM AST THU FEB 16 2006

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...S WINDS 35 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-170715-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
757 AM AST THU FEB 16 2006

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...S WINDS 35 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-170715-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
757 AM AST THU FEB 16 2006

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...S WINDS 40 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

FEB 06

000
FZAK52 PAFG 162324
CWFWCZ

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
224 PM AST THU FEB 16 2006

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-171500-
224 PM AST THU FEB 16 2006

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A WEATHER FRONT ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE
WILL MOVE NORTH OF POINT BARROW FRI MORNING. A 985 MB LOW 450 NM
WEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE NORTH OVER RUSSIA SAT. A 987 MB LOW WILL
BE 200 NM SOUTH OF GAMBELL AT 3 PM AST SAT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS NOME AND KOTZEBUE SOUND SAT NIGHT.


$$

PKZ200-171500-
NORTON SOUND-
224 PM AST THU FEB 16 2006

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. 
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-171500-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
224 PM AST THU FEB 16 2006

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.SAT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-171500-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
224 PM AST THU FEB 16 2006

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...
...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT.
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SNOW.
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-171500-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
224 PM AST THU FEB 16 2006

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR
LESS. 
.SAT...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. VSBY 1 NM OR LESS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

MAR/DA FEB 06

000
FZAK52 PAFG 171248
CWFWCZ

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
348 AM AST FRI FEB 17 2006

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-180330-
348 AM AST FRI FEB 17 2006

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 992 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO JUST WEST OF
ANADYR AS A 981 MB LOW BY 3AM SAT. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE NORTH 
INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA FRI NIGHT AND THEN DEEPEN AND MOVE
TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS A 980 MB LOW SAT NIGHT.


$$

PKZ200-180330-
NORTON SOUND-
348 AM AST FRI FEB 17 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. FOG...SNOW.
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT BECOMING SW. 
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-180330-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
348 AM AST FRI FEB 17 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. FOG...SNOW.
.SAT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 35 KT BECOMING W. FOG.
.SUN...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.MON...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-180330-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
348 AM AST FRI FEB 17 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.SUN...W WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-180330-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
348 AM AST FRI FEB 17 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. FOG...SNOW.
.SAT...S WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...SW WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

FEB 06

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
533 AM AST WED FEB 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CWA WITH A
499 DM LOW CENTERED EAST OVER THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST AND A 576 DM
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES IS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ORIGINATING NEAR 40N AND
PENETRATING ALL THE WAY TO 75N. SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE RUSSIAN LOW SPAWNING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT IN
THE BERING SEA AND CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ALONG THE WEST
COAST. FURTHER TO THE EAST THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ALLOWING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO MOVE INLAND
ALONG WITH A LITTLE PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE...FORMER BERING SEA LOW NOW A SHADOW OF ITS FORMER SELF AT
984 MB LOCATED NORTH OF EASTERN SIBERIA. NEXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE
IS ABOUT 995 MB AND IS LOCATED AT ABOUT 56N 176E. ALTHOUGH WEAKER
THAN ITS PREDECESSOR THIS LOW IS ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD DYNAMICS AND
WHICH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW...WIND...AND BLOWING SNOW TO
THE WEST COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. 1046 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
ALONG THE ALCAN BOARDER AND SHOULD BEGIN TO FADE EAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MODELS...MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND HAVE SIMILAR EVOLUTIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION WITH
REGARDS TO THE NEXT BERING SEA SYSTEM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM A
LITTLE FARTHER WEST WHICH IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA. DISCOUNTED THE WARM ETA MOS
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR FOR THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.

NORTH SLOPE...A CHINOOK HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE
BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES AND ELIMINATING THE BLACK STRATUS FROM
OUR NORTHERN ZONES. 33F TEMPERATURE RISE AT BARROW OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS BRINGING THEM ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
OCTOBER 21 2005. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NEARLY 50F ABOVE NORMAL.
AS THE NEXT BERING SEA SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE RIDGE IT WILL BRING
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IN ZONES 201 AND 202. THIS
LOW WILL ALSO HELP TO USHER IN COOLER AIR ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

WEST COAST...A POST FRONTAL REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE WEST COAST
THIS MORNING WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE FROM A WEAK LOW SOUTH OF ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT. IN ADDITION... THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER THE
DATELINE WILL RESTRENGTHEN THE WINDS BRINGING RENEWED BLOWING SNOW
TO ZONES 211...210...AND 213 PROMPTING BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES
FOR THESE ZONES. AFTER THIS SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEPARTS LATE THURSDAY
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UNSETTLED WEATHER AS ENERGY
CONTINUES TO RIDE NORTHWARD IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.

INTERIOR...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS REMAIN FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED OVER THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL REMAIN 20-
25F WARMER THAN NORMAL TODAY BUT WILL BEGIN TO COOL SOMEWHAT ON
THURSDAY AS THE BERING SEA SYSTEM ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND
DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL HELP BRING
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE INTERIOR AND WILL GENERATE SOME
LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE TO THE EAST THIS SNOW
WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY MAKING IT FURTHER EAST THAN FAIRBANKS AND
WILL BE LIGHT AT BEST. AFTER THIS SNOW DEPARTS THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO REASSERT ITSELF IN THE AREA LIKELY BRINGING ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO PARTS OF THE INTERIOR BY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT THE
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ALASKA WILL WEAKEN AND RETREAT
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN TO DEVELOP BRINGING NUMEROUS BOUTS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO
THE ENTIRE STATE. IN ADDITION MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WOULD
RESULT IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS. HOWEVER THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL
DISPARITY AT THIS POINT THAT MORE TIME IS NEEDED BEFORE WE CAN SAY
THAT A TRUE PATTERN SHIFT IS ON THE WAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JMA FEB 06