Gale Warning 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
525 AM AST SUN FEB 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT..GENERAL PATTERN OF LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

SURFACE...FOR INTERIOR ALASKA...A 988 MB LOW NORTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING AND BE CENTERED
NEAR ARCTIC VILLAGE AS A 993 MB LOW THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR MON AND MON NIGHT THEN PERSIST INTO WED.

OVER THE BERING SEA AND WEST COAST...A 966 MB LOW 800 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE NORTH TO NEAR RUSSIA THEN DISSIPATE
MON MORNING. A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
EAST MON. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS MON AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BE 958 MB 380 MILES WEST OF
GAMBELL AT 3AM TUE. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS RUSSIA TUE TO
TUE NIGHT THEN EMERGE NORTH OF RUSSIA AND A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST
OF WRANGEL ISLAND AT 3AM WED AND CONTINUE NORTHWEST WARD THROUGH
THU.

NORTH SLOPE...A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE
IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. TEMPERATURES AT 800 FEET
ABOVE BARROW WERE 24F AT 3 AM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB TO THE TEENS ABOVE TODAY BUT THEN MAY COOL A LITTLE MON AS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR MOVES EAST INTO CANADA.
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER THE LOW EXITS.
FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE MON. FROM BARROW WEST...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TO RUSSIA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH ON WED.

WEST COAST...THE ONGOING VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL GIVE
A BRIEF RESPITE TO WINDS TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY
THEN BECOME STRONG MON TO MON NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT WARM
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BUT HIGH WINDS LOOK TO BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE. A
COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVES TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU WILL PRODUCE PERIODS
OF LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BUT HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

INTERIOR...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OF MODELS SHOW SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND
CONTINUING TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS INTERIOR AND
COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. TEMPERATURES IN THE
COOLER AIR WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW
INCHES WILL BE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE OVER PLACES BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MON TO MON NIGHT. THE FAR WESTERN
INTERIOR WILL GET SOME LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TUE FROM LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE BERING SEA. ANOTHER LOW MOVING NORTH OVER
THE SOUNDS MAY GIVE MORE SNOW FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR WED...SOME
OF WHICH MAY SPREAD EAST TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WED NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR THU.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.
&&

DA FEB 06