Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
523 AM ADT MON JUN 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY ACTIVE SUMMER PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A PORTION OF THE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER THE NE
GULF OF ALASKA FORECAST TO JUMP THE TERRAIN INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY TODAY. THIS IS A CLASSIC SET UP FOR PRECIP IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR...MADE EVEN BETTER BY FAIRLY COPIOUS MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE. MEANWHILE...995 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING
SEA ALREADY BRINGING WINDS UP WEST OF 165W AND WILL PUSH AN
OCCLUSION ON MAINLAND WESTERN ALASKA LATE TONIGHT AND THEREAFTER
EASTWARD INTO THE INTERIOR AS ALL MODELS FORECAST MODERATE OR EVEN
STRONG WESTERLIES TO BREAK THRU BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BRISK SOUTHERLY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERING SEA LOW WILL CRANK UP A BIT TONIGHT
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH THE USUAL SUPER-GRADIENT WINDS AT
CAPE LISBURNE LIKELY REQUIRING A STRONG WIND HEADLINE STARTING
TONIGHT.

FOR THE WEST COAST...STRONG IN THE NW BERING WILL REMAIN QUITE FAR
WEST...BUT QUICK MOVING FRONT WILL BRING SOME RAIN STARTING TONITE
IN THE EXTREME WEST AND THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. INTERESTING SET-
UP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING POST-FRONTALLY...AS
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE DECENT WAVE ACTION FOR
SOUTHERN SEWARD PEN COAST...BUT COASTAL FLOODING SEEMS MOST
UNLIKELY.

FOR THE INTERIOR...RAIN SE OF FAIRBANKS SEEMS A GOOD BET...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOCALIZED FLOODING. AWAY FROM AREAS OF
STEADY RAIN THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THUNDER MOST ANY TIME.
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TODAY...AND
LITTLE RAIN TUESDAY AHEAD OF BERING SEA OCFNT. TEMPS REMAINING
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.

IN THE LONG RANGE...GFS APPEARS TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF
THE MODELS ON MOVING AN UPPER LOW (AND ACCOMPANYING WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA) INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
ECMF..UKMET AND GEM ALL KEEP THE LOW WELL NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL
ISLAND. GIVEN THE GFS HISTORIC PROBLEMS IN DEALING WITH ARCTIC
LOWS IN THE SUMMER...THIS CAN BE DISCOUNTED. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS
DO HAVE SOME WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...ALBEIT WITH
HIGHER HEIGHTS AND LESS ENERGY OVERALL. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED..ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH OF 67N...WHERE ALL MODELS SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE LIGHTNING DAY SUNDAY WITH NEARLY 1500 STRIKES.
HOWEVER...WITH TRW BEING WET...FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED TO RAIN
FAIRLY QUIET NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CERTAINLY SE INTERIOR ZONES
WHERE RECENT RAINFALL AND FORECASTS WILL KEEP FUELS DAMP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAJOR PROBLEM WILL BE IN AREAS THAT HAD HEAVY RAINS LATE LAST
WEEK...MAINLY EAST-CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE AND RIVERS DRAINING THEM..AND
ARE LIKELY TO GET ANOTHER ROUND NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...MAIN FOCUS
OF HEAVIER RAIN THIS TIME IS LIKELY TO BE FARTHER EAST...WHERE
PCPN WAS MUCH LOWER. WE WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH GOING AT THIS TIME
FOR 223...224 AND 226.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.
&&

RT JUN 06