Brisk Wind Advisory 33, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
529 AM AST WED FEB 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...LOW NEAR BARROW AND OVER CENTRAL BERING SEA WITH RIDGE
OVER NORTH PACIFIC. TROUGH SOUTHWARD FROM BARROW LOW TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. TROUGH MOVING EAST INTO CANADA TODAY WHILE LOW NEAR
BARROW MOVES NORTH AND RIDGE OVER NORTH PACIFIC BUILDS OVER
SOUTHERN INTERIOR. ONE VORTICITY MAX OVER THE YUKON DELTA MOVING
NORTH AND DISSIPATING TONIGHT OVER SEWARD PENINSULA. A STRONGER
VORT MAX WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN WEST COAST TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE NEAR KOTZEBUE THU AM.

SURFACE...985 MB LOW 50 MILES NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE NORTH TODAY. 983 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY. 987 MB LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY MOVING
TO COLD BAY 3PM WED AT 990 MB THEN MOVING TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
3AM THU CONTINUING NORTHWEST. SECOND LOW MOVING FROM NORTH PACIFIC
TO KODIAK 3PM THU THEN NORTHWEST TO BETHEL 3AM FRI.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ETA HAS COME AROUND TO GFS SOLUTION
IN DAYS 2-3 TREATING LOW MOVING UP TOWARD KODIAK AS WEAKENING ONCE
IT MOVES FURTHER NORTHWEST.

NORTH SLOPE...SNOW TODAY DIMINISHING BUT WEST WINDS PICKING UP BY
NOON AS SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTH AWAY FROM COAST...THEN
WINDS DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES WITH LOW
FARTHER AWAY. WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AND INCREASING THU AND THU
NIGHT AS NEW SYSTEM MOVES OVER SW ALASKA COAST.

WESTERN ALASKA...EAST WINDS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TODAY OVER
ZONES 211...212...214 AS VORT MAX MOVES NORTH...IT MAY SPREAD SOME
SNOW SHOWERS NORTH TO KOTZEBUE BEFORE DISSIPATING TONIGHT. WINDS
PICKING UP MORE WITH SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST OVER AREA AND WILL
KEEP BLIZ WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 211-215 TONIGHT AND THU...
THOUGH ZONES LIKE 212 AND 215 WILL BE HARD TO VERIFY DUE TO NOT
AS MUCH OF FALLING SNOW EXPECTED NOW...AND ZONE 214 MAY END UP TOO
WARM TO GET VISIBILITY LOW ENOUGH. SECOND LOW MOVING UP FROM
KODIAK WILL MAINTAIN SOME MODERATE WINDS OVER AT LEAST SOUTHERN
ZONES INTO FRIDAY.

CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR...UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH AREA THIS
MORNING HAS BROUGHT MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO HIGHWAY SUMMITS OF
ZONES 221 AND 220 SO HAVE BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL
WINDS DROP OFF AROUND NOON. AS RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER INTERIOR AND
THEN SLIDES EAST CHINOOK FLOW WILL COMMENCE THU AND THEN INTENSIFY
FRI BRINGING WARMER TEMPS AND GUSTY WINDS IN ALASKA RANGE PASSES.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214-AKZ215.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ220-AKZ221.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ205-AKZ206.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

JL FEB 06