Brisk Wind Advisory 182, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
217 PM ADT WED JUL 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINLAND
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BERING SEA AND THEN INTO CHUKOTKA
HOLDING STEADY. LOW ALOFT OVER BANKS ISLAND MOVING EASTWARD WHILE
TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA.

AT THE SURFACE...1034 HIGH NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. 1016 MB LOW SE WRANGEL ISLAND POORLY
MODELED..HAS WELL DEVELOPED THOUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
CHUKCHI SEA...AND EVEN EMBEDDED THUNDER BEING DETECTED BY LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK. WEAK COLD FRONT HUNG UP IN THE BROOKS RANGE
WILL BE LARGELY DIFFUSE AS IT DRIFTS SOUTH. 1017 MB THERMAL LOW
CENTERED NEAR TANANA WITH TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TANANA
VALLEY. COMBINATION OF FALLING PRESSURES OVER THE INTERIOR AND
SLIGHTLY RISING PRESSURES BROOKS RANGE NORTHWARD WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF 67N STARTING THU.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...STRONG CLEARING TODAY WAINWRIGHT-NORTH OF
ARCTIC VILLAGE LINE...BUT SLUG OF ST/F NOW SHOWING UP OFFSHORE
DEADHORSE EASTWARD...AND MAKING SOME PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. LOW OVER
THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA WILL KEEP SOME RAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES
TONIGHT.

FOR THE WEST COAST...ONLY A LITTLE ST/F LINGERING IN EASTERN
NORTON SOUND THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT..WESTERN
CHUKCHI SEA LOW AND TROUGH WILL BRING SOME PRECIP...AND BASED ON
LIGHTNING DATA WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER IN ZONE 207 THIS
EVENING.

FOR THE INTERIOR...SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS EVENING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THERMAL LOW/TROUGH AS DEEP MOISTURE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE
FAIRLY WARM AIR ALOFT. FARTHER NORTH A FEW SHOWERS BUT LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WINDS COMING UP OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
THURSDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING. TROUGH ALOFT DROPPING
SOUTH OF BROOKS RANGE WILL HELP SPARK SOME SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
THURSDAY EVEN AS SOUTH BECOMES MORE STABLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BROOKS
RANGE WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE ENOUGH BY WEDNESDAY FOR FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES FOR WEDNESDAY ZONES 217 EASTWARD TO 220. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO RFW WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN UP THRU THURSDAY...SO RFW MAY BE NEED THEN TOO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
CONSISTENTLY HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE INTO SLOWLY RISING
LEVELS ON GLACIER FEED RIVERS...OTHERWISE LITTLE HYDRO ACTION.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR AKZ217-AKZ218-AKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.
&&

RT JUL 06