Brisk Wind Advisory 152, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
211 PM ADT TUE MAY 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE 982 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN BY
ABOUT 10 MB OVER THE NEXT 24 HR AS IT DRIFTS EAST...AND
BY ANOTHER 10 MB WED NIGHT AND THU AS IT TURNS NORTHWEST TO
BE NEAR CAPE NAVARIN AT 4PM THU. THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW PRESENTLY LIES FROM ABOUT TIN CITY TO NOME TO
EMMONAK AND IS BECOMING DIFFUSE.  IT HAS LOST ITS SUPPORT ALOFT.
THE TROUGH ALOFT HAS OUTRUN IT AND LIES FROM ABOUT SHISHMAREF
TO UNALAKLEET. THIS TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING OVER ZONE 208...INLAND PORTIONS OF ZONE 209...
EASTERN 210...AND ZONES 216 AND 217. A SEPARATE FEATURE...
A WEAK LOW ALOFT WEST OF FAIRBANKS...WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
AND ALSO CONTRIBUTE SOME OF THIS ACTION GOING OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTIVE ACTION HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED OVER ZONES 221 AND 222 SO
FAR TODAY...BUT WE EXPECT SOME DEVELOPMENTS THIS EVENING AS
THE LITTLE LOW ALOFT MOVES NORTHWEST...ALLOWING THE LESS
STABLE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TO MOVE BACK IN OVER THE
AREA. LESS ACTION HERE THAN FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THOUGH.

ANOTHER LOW ALOFT...THIS ONE OVER THE WRANGELS...WILL DRIFT
NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN ZONE 224 AND PORTIONS
OF ZONES 220...225...AND 226. IT IS ALSO ENTRAINING COOLER
AIR FROM NORTHWEST CANADA THOUGH...REDUCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDER (AT LEAST) OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR ON WED.

EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR TO STRENGTHEN
TONIGHT AND THU. WITH THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN NOT
GOING ANYWHERE SOON...EXPECT INCREASING EAST WINDS OVER THE
ARCTIC COAST....WITH THE USUAL STRATUS AND FOG FROM AT LEAST
BARROW EAST.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210.
&&

DJH MAY 06