Blizzard Watch 3, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
527 AM AST TUE FEB 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN ALASKA AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA FOR A LONG TIME TO
COME.

972 MB LOW JUST EAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH AND
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION NOW
VIRTUALLY UNDEFINABLE AS CLOUD SHIELD HAS BEEN THOROUGHLY SHREDDED
AND VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE REMAINS IN THE PRESSURE TENDENCY FIELDS.
REASONABLY WELL DEFINED ARCTIC FRONT IN ARC FROM FORT YUKON TO
BETTLES TO NOME...THEN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. HOWEVER...STRONG PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR INDICATE THE CHINOOK WARMED AIR ALOFT IS BEING RAPIDLY
REPLACED AND ARCTIC FRONT WILL JUMP EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEXT 12 HOURS.

MODELS THIS MORNING IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE BASIC EVOLUTION
BUT DIFFER IN MOST OF THE DETAILS. ON THE WHOLE WE PREFER THE
00/06Z GFS SOLUTIONS BUT RECOGNIZE THE RUN/RUN PROBLEMS THAT
PLAGUE ALL THE MODELS IN THESE PROGRESSIVE..HIGH ENERGY
SITUATIONS.

BASIC SCENARIO IS FOR LOW IN THE 972 MB LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA TO MOVE NORTH AND THE NORTHEAST...WINDING UP IN THE BEAUFORT
SEA BY WED MORNING. 980 MB LOW NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND DRIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH. OLD 980 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA...THE
INACTIVE REFLECTION OF THE COLD LOW ALOFT...WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY. HIGH PRESSURE RAPIDLY BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TUE NIGHT AND WED. WAVE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WED. MUCH DEEPER LOW WILL
REMAIN ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

FOR THE NORTH SLOPE...
AS THE CURRENT BERING SEA LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR BLIZ TO DEVELOP IN ZONE 201. WE WILL LEAVE THE BLIZ
WATCH OUT FOR NOW. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR THE WEST COAST...ALL PUBLIC ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRESENT SYSTEM BEEN CANCELLED. INCREASING GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE INTERIOR RIDGE AND CENTRAL BERING SEA LOW MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BLIZ IN ZONE 214 STARTING THIS EVENING...BUT LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIMIT SURFACE WINDS.

FOR THE INTERIOR...ALL WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. COOLER
AIR ALOFT IS RAPIDLY REPLACING...INSTEAD OF UNDER-CUTTING..THE WARM
AIRMASS OF MONDAY...SO SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THE 12Z ARCTIC FRONT
POSITION WILL BE VERY LIMITED. AIRMASS WILL AGAIN MODERATE LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH PROBABLE BRISK WINDS IN THE USUAL AREAS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ214.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

RT FEB 06