Blizzard Watch 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
140 PM AST THU MAR 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TODAY. THE EXCEPTIONS IN THE
SHORT TERM ARE CONFINED MAINLY TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. ETA IS
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN GFS. WILL ALIGN OURSELVES MORE WITH GFS
ON THE AMOUNTS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE STATE. THIS IS HOLDING OFF MOVEMENT OF
PRECIPITATION EASTWARD OF LINE BASICALLY FROM BETTLES TO TANANA.
AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA WEAKENS AND THE HIGH OVER WESTERN
CANADA WEAKENS AS WELL...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
RELAX OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS AND SNOW WILL DECREASE TONIGHT OVER KOTZEBUE WHICH WILL
IMPROVE THE VISIBILITY.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE CHINOOK CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR THROUGH SATURDAY ALBEIT SHOULD BE WEAK FLOW AND NOT CAUSE
STRONG WINDS ANYWHERE TO WARRANT WARNINGS.

BY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THE NEXT LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA
SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE WEST COAST FROM KOTZEBUE SOUTHWARD. SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST.
MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD TO THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN
ON INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL REMAIN IN THE BERING SEA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235.
&&

CF MAR 06

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