Blizzard Warning 28, NWS Fairbanks, AK

000 
WWAK42 PAFG 152339
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
239 PM AST FRI DEC 15 2006

AKZ213-160600-
/X.CON.PAFG.BZ.W.0028.061216T0300Z-061216T1400Z/
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-
INCLUDING...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...TELLER...
WALES...DIOMEDE
239 PM AST FRI DEC 15 2006

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 AM AST SATURDAY AT ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...

AT ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...EAST WINDS 40 TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE EVENING. SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT CAUSING VISIBILITIES IN
BLOWING SNOW TO DETERIORATE TO NEAR ZERO.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN THE BERING STRAIT.

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES WILL CAUSE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE ANY TRAVEL
OR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY HAZARDOUS.

$$

AKZ214-160600-
/X.CON.PAFG.BS.Y.0038.061216T0000Z-061216T0600Z/
YUKON DELTA-
INCLUDING...EMMONAK...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...
PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY...NUNAM IQUA...
PITKAS POINT
239 PM AST FRI DEC 15 2006

...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AST THIS
EVENING ALONG THE COAST...

ALONG THE COAST...EAST WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH ARE PRODUCING BLOWING
SNOW...AND OCCASIONAL LOW VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS POOR INLAND FROM THE
COAST.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING
AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING.

$$

000 
WWAK42 PAFG 160353
WSWWCZ

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
653 PM AST FRI DEC 15 2006

AKZ213-160500-
/X.CAN.PAFG.BZ.W.0028.000000T0000Z-061216T1400Z/
ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND BERING STRAIT COAST-
INCLUDING...GAMBELL...SAVOONGA...BREVIG MISSION...TELLER...
WALES...DIOMEDE
653 PM AST FRI DEC 15 2006

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE
BLIZZARD WARNING. 


$$

AKZ214-160500-
/X.CAN.PAFG.BS.Y.0038.000000T0000Z-061216T0600Z/
YUKON DELTA-
INCLUDING...EMMONAK...MOUNTAIN VILLAGE...ALAKANUK...KOTLIK...
PILOT STATION...ST MARYS...SCAMMON BAY...NUNAM IQUA...
PITKAS POINT
653 PM AST FRI DEC 15 2006

...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS CANCELLED THE
BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. 


$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
416 AM AST FRI DEC 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS APPEAR TO INITIALIZE WELL AT SURFACE AND 500 MB EXCEPT THAT
THE NAM INITIALIZES 30 M TOO HIGH ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST WHILE THE
GFS INITIALIZES THIS FEATURE MORE ACCURATELY. THE NAM MAINTAINS THE
HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE BASED ON
THE POOR ANALYSIS SO WE FAVOR THE GFS THERE. AT THE SURFACE THE
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL, BUT THE GFS MOVES THE BERING SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST MORE QUICKLY THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE BETTER GFS
SOLUTION AT 500 MB FAVOR THE FASTER GFS SURFACE MOVEMENT AS WELL.

AT 850 MB THE NAM TEMPERATURE INITIALIZATION IS VERY POOR BEING 5C
TOO WARM AT FAIRBANKS AND 7C TOO WARM AT BARROW WHILE THE GFS
ANALYSIS MUCH BETTER. THE NAM MAINTAINS 850 TEMPS TOO WARM OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH 3MA SAT.

QUICK SCAT WINDS AT 06Z SHOW GFS WINDS MAYBE 3-5 KT TOO HIGH, BUT
STILL HAVE STORM FORCE ALONG THE FRONT AS VERIFIED BY PASN OBS AS
WELL. WILL DROP GFS MAX WINDS 3 KTS OR SO FOR TODAY AS RESULT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH ALOFT FROM POINT HOPE TO MCGRATH WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST TO LIE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST BY SAT EVENING. LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL PERSIST NORTHEAST OF THE TROUGH WITH
CLEARING TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR NORTHWAY IS
PUSHING MOISTURE WEST OVER THE COLD AIR AND WILL GIVE STEADY SNOW
IN THE AREAS FROM FAIRBANKS EAST TODAY BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TONIGHT.

A 967 MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO ST MATTHEW
ISLAND AS A 975 MB BY 3PM SUN. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT FROM
WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND TO THE YUKON DELTA SAT AM AND TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA TO
DENALI BY 3PM SUN. SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 50 KT ALONG THE FRONT WILL
DECREASE TO 40 KT ALONG THE FRONT FRI PM AND TO 30 KT SAT PM.
A BAND OF SNOW ALONG THE FRONT WILL BECOME THINNER AND LESS
CERTAIN TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STRETCHES EAST AND BECOMES LESS
DEFINED.

THIS FRONT IS ALREADY PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN ZONES 213 AND 214, AND THIS COULD CAUSE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ONCE FALLING SNOW STARTS ABOUT NOON TODAY. FALLING SNOW
MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS START DECREASING,
BUT NOT SURE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE THIS AS A WATCH. CAN
DOWNGRADE TO AN ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON IF BLIZZARD CAN BE RULED
OUT.

EAST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN AREAS ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND INTERIOR THAT DRAIN FROM THE EAST SUCH AS KOTZEBUE,
UNALAKLEET AND THE TANANA VALLEY JET. EAST WILL ALSO INCREASE
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND SAT.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

JB DEC 06