Storm Warning 258, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 300105
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST FRI DEC 29 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-301500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 970 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE TO 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YAKUTAT AND WEAKEN TO 978 MB BEFORE MOVING INLAND MON NIGHT. A 990 MB
LOW 930 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY TUE NIGHT WILL DEEPEN TO 980 MB AND
MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WED AFTERNOON. 
SNOW 
$$

PKZ120-301500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST FRI DEC 29 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 25 KT THIS EVENING.
WINDS BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 37 FT SUBSIDING TO 24 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-301500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 29 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO N 15 KT THIS EVENING.
GUSTS TO 35 KT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD THIS EVENING. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING
TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-301500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST FRI DEC 29 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.   

$$

PKZ129-301500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST FRI DEC 29 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-301500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST FRI DEC 29 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-301500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST FRI DEC 29 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-301500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST FRI DEC 29 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-301500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 29 2006

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. N WIND 20 KT
ELSEWHERE. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. NE WIND 25 KT ELSEWHERE.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 

$$

PKZ141-301500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST FRI DEC 29 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 15 KT.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST THU DEC 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. TODAY IS THE BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR MOST OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA.

IN THE EAST...A LARGE LOW THAT IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE JUST SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY.
THIS STRONG SYSTEM HAS ALL THE INGREDIENTS TO MAKE THE FORECAST
PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING. THE WARM SECTOR IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE STORM IS MUCH WARMER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF LOWS. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO GO INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FRIDAY EVENING BUT THE
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER IS NOT AS SIMPLE AS SOME LOWS. THE WARM AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUND WITH THE LOW AND BRING RAIN INTO A LOT OF
THE SOUND...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PARTS. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
VALDEZ WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS THE PROPENSITY FOR THE VALDEZ AREA TO
REMAIN SNOW EVEN WITH WARM AIR MOVING IN. ANOTHER CONSIDERATION FOR
THE VALDEZ AREA IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE BLOWING SNOW OR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. IF THE LOW REMAINS ON ITS FORECAST
TRACK IT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE COOK INLET AREAS AS
WELL AS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. THE
REAL TRICKY PART IS EXACTLY WHERE THIS LOW TRACK WILL BE AND HOW MUCH
WARM AIR IS AROUND THE LOW BEFORE THE COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND THE LOW
AND PUSHES ALL LEVELS BELOW FREEZING. A HUNDRED MILE DIFFERENCE IN
WHERE THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUND WILL MAKE A LARGE IMPACT IN THE
FORECASTS. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUND IT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
AND WEAKEN. THIS WILL MAKE SNOW LIKELY OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA REGION AS WELL AS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREAS...EVEN AREAS THAT
INITIALLY GET RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO ALL THIS WILL BE KODIAK WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS STORM AND
WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OUT OF IT.

MODELS...THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT THE LAST NUMBER OF
RUNS WITH BRINGING THE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE SOUND. IF THIS
OCCURS WITH THE WARM AIR REMAINING MOSTLY EAST IT WILL BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE COOK INLET AREA AND EASTERN KENAI
PENINSULA. A CONSIDERATION FOR THE ANCHORAGE AREA IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME FREEZING RAIN IF ENOUGH OF THE WARM AIR ALOFT AROUND THIS LOW
OVERRIDES THE COLD SURFACE AIR OVER ANCHORAGE AND TURNAGAIN ARM.
THE NAM IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS OVERALL. HOWEVER ONE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE TWO THAT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT IS THE WAY THE NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP
A LOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF. WE WILL
WANT TO WATCH THIS SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AND SEE IF A SPLIT IN THIS LOW
INTO TWO LOWS OCCURS. IF SO IT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME OF THE WARM AIR
FURTHER WEST AND INCREASE THE PROBABLY OF RAIN MAKING IT INTO THE
EASTERN KENAI AND EVEN COOK INLET AREA. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS TO REMAIN SNOW. THE BIG
CONCERN ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A
LITTLE COOL WITH WARMER AIR IN THE SYSTEMS THAN THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING. THAT IS WHY THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT RAIN OR
FREEZING RAIN IN THE COOK INLET AREA AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

IN THE WEST...NUMEROUS AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW PERSIST AS THE OLD LOW
JUST SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY CONTINUES TO CHURN. THIS LOW SHOULD
FINALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AND HELP DIMINISH THE WINDS AND BLOWING
SNOW AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY IN THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINLAND AS
THE LOW IN MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FROM RELAXING ENTIRELY. A COMPLEX LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SOUTHWEST
OF ATTU WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN OVERNIGHT AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. IT WILL CREATE A LARGE AREA OF
STRONG WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE ALEUTIAN CHAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS AT THAT TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 120 172 175 350. GALE 125 130 132 150 176 410 .
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 06