Storm Warning 199, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 270014
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SUN NOV 26 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN GULF MON AFTERNOON THEN FLATTEN MON NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA SUN NIGHT AND WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TUE. A 1007 MB LOW 550 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK
ISLAND MON AFTERNOON WILL STRENGTHEN TO 992 MB 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK CITY TUE AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-271500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST SUN NOV 26 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-271500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST SUN NOV 26 2006

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-271500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST SUN NOV 26 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF NORTHEAST BAYS AND PASSES. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. LOCAL AREAS OF FREEZING
SPRAY. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-271500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST SUN NOV 26 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-271500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST SUN NOV 26 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.  BARREN ISLANDS AND EAST...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-271500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST SUN NOV 26 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-271500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST SUN NOV 26 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8
FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-271500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST SUN NOV 26 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
 BUILDING TO 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-271500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST SUN NOV 26 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SAT NOV 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN ALASKA WITH CUT-OFF LOWS
OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND SE AK THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER MAINLAND AK WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT/TROUGH
ALONG WESTERN AK EXTENDING ACROSS THE AKPEN AND KODIAK ISLAND INTO
THE GULF. A LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND A RAPIDLY MOVING
SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE TO THE
ALCAN BY MON. THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE SHORTWAVE
HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL BRING ABUNDANT
MOISTURE TO WESTERN ALASKA ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT WINDS. FOR THE
MORNING FORECAST THE GFS REMAINS THE MODEL OF CHOICE EXCEPT AFTER 72
HOURS IN THE WESTERN BERING WHERE CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOW.

EAST OF THE AK RANGE...CLOUDS FROM THE DECAYING FRONT WILL AFFECT
KODIAK AND THE KENAI TODAY...WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM THE GULF
AFFECTING THE NORTH GULF COAST. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA INTO SUN. THE SECOND FRONT...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IN THE BERING...WILL BRING SNOW TO
KODIAK ISLAND ON SUN...WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST BY SUN
NIGHT. SHOWERY PRECIP WILL SPREAD INLAND MON AND TUE.

WEST OF THE AK AND ALEUTIAN RANGES...HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST TODAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...WIND WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING. ON SUN...WIND COMBINED WITH SNOW MAY
PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THAT PERSISTS
INTO MON. SNOW WILL ALSO AFFECT THE REST OF THE AREA...DIMINISHING
MON AND ENDING TUE.

FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING...RAIN...GALES AND STORMS WILL AFFECT
EASTERN PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SUN. SMALL CRAFT OR
WEAKER WINDS WILL THEN BLOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUE. FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS...EXCEPT FOR SOME SMALL CRAFT WINDS TODAY...BENIGN
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL GALES BRIEFLY DEVELOP SUN NIGHT.
SOMETIME ON TUE THE NEXT KAMCHATKA LOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING GALES AND
POSSIBLE STORMS TO THE WESTERN ISLANDS...BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THAT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 155
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 140 141 180 185
         GALES 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 171
         STORMS 170 172 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS NOV 06