Storm Warning 130, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 061534 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
535 AM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

UPDATED AREAS 121 125 129 130

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 997 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 120 NM
SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AND WEAKEN TO 1006 MB BY THU AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE THU 
NIGHT. ON THU AFTERNOON A 964 MB LOW WILL BE 430 NM NORTHWEST OF
CHIGNIK. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 430 NM WEST OF HOMER AT 967 MB BY FRI
MORNING. 
$$

PKZ120-070200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
535 AM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-070200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-070200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
715 AM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-070200-
PASSAGE CANAL
715 AM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-070200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
715 AM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT WITH GUST TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-070200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-070200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-070200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-070200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 062312
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 998 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND REMAINS STATIONARY AND
WEAKENS TO 1006 MB THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS CENTER THEN DISSIPATES
THURSDAY NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ120-071400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT EXCEPT WEST OF CAPE CLEARE N WIND 35 KT
BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-071400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-071400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING E WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-071400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. STRONGER GUSTS 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.  

$$

PKZ130-071400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NW 35 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT EXCEPT 14 FT SOUTHEAST OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN.
.THU...WIND DIMINISHING TO W 15 KT IN THE MORNING. WIND BECOMING
BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-071400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-071400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-071400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-071400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED SEP 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...
A RIDGE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...A LOW JUST WEST OF THE
ALEUTIANS...AND A VERY STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES. SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL CONTINUE IN CYCLONIC FLOW...AND
THUS MORE PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE GULF LOW REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE BY THE NORTHWEST
BLOCKING RIDGE.

THE FEATURE THAT IS RAPIDLY BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM IN
THE AREA IS THE LOW WEST OF THE ALEUTIANS...WHICH CONTAINS THE
REMAINS OF FORMER SUPER TYPHOON IOKE. THIS LOW WILL BOMB OUT TODAY
OVER THE BERING SEA. CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BOTTOM OUT AT
AROUND 963 MB EARLY THURSDAY. BEING A FORMER TYPHOON...THIS LOW
CONTAINS COPIOUS MOISTURE AND WILL BRING DECENT AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA IT
WILL FINALLY KICK OUT THE GULF LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CROSS
THE AKPEN AND DROP INTO THE GULF SATURDAY TO TAKE ITS PLACE. THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE ABOVE SCENARIO THROUGH
ABOUT SUNDAY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO SING THEIR OWN SONGS
AND CONFIDENCE IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY LOW. THE
NORTHERN GULF HAS BEEN A SWEET SPOT FOR LOWS THIS SUMMER AS THE
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA BLOCKING RIDGE HAS NOT ALLOWED THEM TO PASS
EASTWARD. SO IT SEEMS LIKELY THE LOW WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF INTO
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THE FORECASTS FOR THAT PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179
                      180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG SEP 06