Storm Warning 123, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 030046 CCA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
445 PM ADT WED AUG 2 2006

CORRECTED SYNOPSIS AND AREA 141

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-031400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHIGNIK WILL MOVE TO 130 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY THU AFTERNOON AT 994 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN
MOVE TO 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF HOMER AND WEAKEN TO 1000 MB FRI. 
$$

PKZ120-031400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT WED AUG 2 2006

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-031400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT WED AUG 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-031400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT WED AUG 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-031400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT WED AUG 2 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.   

$$

PKZ130-031400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT WED AUG 2 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-031400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT WED AUG 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-031400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT WED AUG 2 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-031400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT WED AUG 2 2006

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT EXCEPT 12 FT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE WIND 35 KT SOUTH OF KALGIN
ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT EXCEPT 13 FT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-031400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT WED AUG 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT WED AUG 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...

GFS AND NAM IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH 30 HOURS...EACH PLACING
THE ALEUTIAN LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT 36 HOURS THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NAM
CARRIES THE LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY THEN INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF ALASKA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. IN CONTRAST THE 00Z RUN OF THE
GFS CARRIES THE LOW DIRECTLY INTO BRISTOL BAY.

ALL IN ALL...THE OLD 12Z TUE RUN OF THE GFS...WHICH TRACKED THE LOW
DIRECTLY OVER KODIAK ISLAND...IS THE PREFFERED MODEL. ONLY MINOR
CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST PACKAGE.

SLIGHT AMS INSTABILITY OVER INTERIOR ALASKA AGAIN TODAY. POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KUSKOKWIM AND NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEYS
THIS EVENING.

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING LOW. RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
INTERMITTENT BY LATE THIS EVENING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB AUG 06