Storm Warning 115, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 021521 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
720 AM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

UPDATED ZONES 120 121 130 AND 138

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW 700 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN TO 986
MB AS IT MOVES NORTH 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD THURSDAY MORNING. A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-030200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
720 AM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST OF
CAPE CLEARE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-030200-
RESURRECTION BAY
720 AM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-030200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-030200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-030200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
720 AM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. EAST OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-030200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-030200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
720 AM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-030200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-030200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 022307
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-031400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 992 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL DEEPEN TO 986 MB 
AND MOVE TO 350 NM EAST OF SAND POINT WED AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN TO 990 MB AND MOVE TO 150 NM EAST OF KODIAK THU AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-031400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-031400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-031400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-031400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-031400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 
BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-031400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-031400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-031400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-031400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT TUE MAY 2 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 031204
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY. A 985
MB LOW 500 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH 180
NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA AT 996 MB FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE ONSHORE
NEAR CORDOVA FRIDAY NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-040200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-040200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-040200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-040200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-040200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-040200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-040200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-040200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-040200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT WED MAY 3 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE MAY 02 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW MOVING OVER CHIGNIK ON THE
ALASKA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THE OCCLUDED
FRONT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WHERE A STRONG
SHORT WAVE IS FLOWING W-E ALONG THE 45TH PARALLEL. GFS AND ETA
INITIALIZE WELL WITH THE AKPEN LOW BUT ARE HAVING A HARD TIME WITH
THE DETAILS SURROUNDING THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC.
ETA HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM BUT
STILL A DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE IN WHICH THIS LOW DEEPENS. AT THIS
POINT THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH REGARDING THE TRACK AND TIMING BUT SOME
OF THE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
RUNS.

UPPER AIR...THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR THE AKPEN IS THE FOCUS FOR ALL
OF THE SOUTHERN ALASKA WEATHER AS IT SLOWLY ROTATES AROUND THE
EASTERN BERING SEA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN AS LONG AS THIS UPPER FEATURE REMAINS IN THAT REGION. SHORT
WAVES WILL DEVELOP SURFACE FEATURES THAT WILL EJECT NORTHWARD AROUND
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PARENT LOW TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST DEPICTS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENING AND A
MEANDERING JET BECOMING MORE ZONAL AND FOCUSED ALONG 45N.

SOUTHCENTRAL SURFACE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE OCCLUSION IN THE
NORTHERN GULF NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 11Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS
FRONT TO MOVE ONSHORE AND WASH OUT OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. LOOK FOR CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST
AND SOUTH AND EAST FACING RANGES. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. PARTIAL CLEARING WILL RESULT IN RADIATIVE COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING IN PLACES.
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...GALES WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY TODAY BUT
RETURN OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND THE BARRIER
JET DEVELOPS AGAIN ALONG THE COAST...STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY WITH
THIS FEATURE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SOUTHWEST SURFACE...MOISTURE FROM THE OCCLUSION IS BEING DRAINED ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES LEAVING MOST OF
THE SOUTHWEST IN A RAIN SHADOW. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE KILBUCK
AND AHKLUN MOUNTAINS IN OUR ZONES 161 AND 155. THE NEXT SYSTEM SEEMS
TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND A MORE FAVORABLE TROF AXIS
WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW COME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE RELATIVELY QUIET IN THIS REGION WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATING. FURTHER WEST THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE AKPEN LOW ARE KEEPING LOW CEILINGS OVER MOST OF THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS QUIET PATTERN WILL CHANGE
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AS A 981 MB LOW MOVES
JUST SOUTH OF THE CHAIN BRINGING GALES BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND
THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM...120. GALES 130 150 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AB MAY 06