Small Craft Advisory 995, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT OCT 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF THE PRIBILOFS MOVING NORTHEAST IS BRINGING
GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE BERING AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN.
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS LOW HAS ALREADY REACHED THE YUKON DELTA. A
RIDGE STRETCHING NORTHEAST FROM THE AKPEN TO OVER THE SUSITNA AND
COPPER RIVER VALLEY IS KEEPING SOUTHCENTRAL MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY.

NAM DID NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE BERING LOW. WITH GFS AND UKMET
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GFS KEEPING RELATIVELY CONSISTENT IN THE LONG
TERM...HAVE FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE.

EAST...CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING LATER TODAY FROM THE WEST AS
THE BERING SYSTEM NEARS TO PUSH THE RIDGE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN LATE TONIGHT REACHING OVER TO EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
COPPER RIVER BASIN LATER TOMORROW MORNING. WITH COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...LOOK FOR PRECIP TO BEGIN AS SNOW. WARM
ADVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MIX OR CHANGE SNOW TO RAIN
TOMORROW. DURING THE CHANGE OVER...FREEZING RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MORNING. A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN SUSITNA
VALLEY TOMORROW MORNING AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT AGAINST THE
ALASKA RANGE WILL ALLOW HEAVIER SNOW TO FALL OVER THIS AREA. THE LOW
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT. AS COLD AIR
COMES AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...RAIN SHOULD TURN BACK INTO
SNOW ON MONDAY.

WEST...PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND TODAY. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL
PROVIDE STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...
PRIBILOFS...AKPEN...WESTERN CAPES AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH
TOMORROW. CONSTANT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE LOW
TOWARD WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING TO KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN WILL CHANGE
BACK TO SNOW AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY AND COLD AIR
MOVES SOUTH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING INTO THE BERING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MAINLAND THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK TO CLEAR IT OUT AND LOWER TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERLY FLOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY 155 161
MARINE...STORM 170 179 180
      ...GALE 150 155 160 165 171 172 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR OCT 06