Small Craft Advisory 968, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 222351
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 22 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1002 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 175 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND MON AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 50 NM 
WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM TUE AFTERNOON AT 986 MB. COLD AIR BEHIND THE
LOW WILL BRING STRONG NORTHWESTERLIES MON NIGHT AND TUE.
$$

PKZ150-231400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 22 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 22 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF SAND
POINT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-231400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 22 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-231400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 22 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-231400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-231400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 22 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-231400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 22 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 22 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT GUSTING TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.

.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-231400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 22 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 22 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 22 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-231400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...

ANALYSIS...A 987 MB SURFACE LOW IS MAKING LANDFALL JUST EAST OF THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA (AT 21Z). RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WIDESPREAD SNOW
IS FALLING IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING...THE SNOW
IS VERY WET. GUSTY WINDS HAVE KICKED IN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW
WITH WIDESPREAD 20 TO 30 KTS AND FEW ISOLATED GALES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER GULF SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD...SO BACK EDGE OF PRECIP WILL FOLLOW. OUT WEST THERE
IS A STRONG NEAR ZONAL UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM ASIA TO SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS. THIS IS HELPING TO PUSH THE GULF TROUGH EASTWARD. THERE IS
ONE LOW RIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE JET BETWEEN THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. IT IS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND
BRINGING ONLY A 6 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF RAIN AS IT MOVES THROUGH. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE FOUND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOW ALONG AND BEHIND THE
OCCLUSION...CURRENTLY FROM THE SOUTHERN AKPENN TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. ANOTHER LOW IS FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. FINALLY...A DYING LOW IS SPINNING
EAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND IS STILL PRODUCING SOME IMPRESSIVE
SHOWERS FROM ALONG THE WEST COAST.

MODEL ANALYSIS...MODELS INITIALIZED VERY WELL BUT SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AT ABOUT 24 HOURS. MODELS HAVE BEEN HAVING TROUBLE THE LAST
FEW DAYS DEALING WITH THE EVOLUTION OF LOWS IN FAST FLOW. RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IS POOR. WITH LOW OVER SOUTHERN BERING PREFER GFS/UKMET
SOLUTION OVER NAM AS LOW TRANSITIONS INTO THE GULF. THE NEXT LOW
MOVING FROM KAMCHATKA INTO THE CENTRAL BERING IS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THE LATEST RUN. WILL TREND TOWARD THE NEW GFS SOLUTION WITH THIS LOW.

SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST...SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT FROM
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS SURFACE LOW/UPPER

TROUGH MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR. GUSTY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE WILL
ALSO DIMINISH. BERING LOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE GULF TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO THE COAST AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS IT QUICKLY RACES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
YUKON. THE FRONTAL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC WILL RIDE THE JET
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA LATE
MONDAY. ONLY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF LOW IN COLD
ADVECTION. LOOK FOR THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS FORECAST...SOUTHERN BERING
LOW WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND THE AKPENN TONIGHT
BRINGING A SHOT OF WIND AND RAIN...MAINLY TO ITS SOUTH. A SHORT-WAVE
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE LOW AND TRANSPORT SOME COLD AIR
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING AND THROUGH GAPS IN THE AKPENN SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION...LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH NEXT LOW MOVING TO WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS DO
ALL INDICATE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH AS SHORT-WAVES DROP INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...EXPECT A STRONGER LOW AND
STRONGER WINDS AS MUCH COLDER AIR IS TRANSPORTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN BERING. IN ANY CASE LOOK FOR RAIN AND WINDS TO PICK BACK
UP ACROSS BERING SEA REGION FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. LOOK FOR MOST OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY ZONE 141.
MARINE...GALES 130 150 155 AND 176.

SEB OCT 06