Small Craft Advisory 965, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ALASKA
THIS MORNING. A DEEP TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TO
NEARLY THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THERE IS A STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE ALONG
THE NORTH AMERICAN WEST COAST. THE RIDGE AXIS RUNS FROM THE GREAT
BEAR LAKE IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

A DEEP SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND IS MOVING TO
THE NORTH. THE MOISTURE PLUME WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP IS
FIRE-HOSING SOUTHEAST ALASKA. ANOTHER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA
IS RIDING THE JET STREAM EASTWARD.

THE NORTHERN GULF LOW WILL MOVE INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL BE EAST OF 148W LONGITUDE. SOME
SHOWERS MAY POP UP WEST OF THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
TRAILING TROUGH CROSSES SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. THE BERING LOW WILL
RACE ACROSS THE BERING SEA TODAY AND CROSS THE NORTHEASTERN AKPEN
TONIGHT...AND THEN SKIRT THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY THE JET WILL POUND THROUGH THE WEST COAST BLOCKING
RIDGE...WHICH THEN RETROGRADES OUT TO 155W LONGITUDE. THIS WHOLE
PROCESS KEEPS THE JET RUNNING ALONG ABOUT 50N LATITUDE. BOTTOM
LINE...THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERN ALASKA WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH AND THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK. IN FACT THE MAJOR
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK...CARVING OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA. HOWEVER...ALL
BETS ARE OFF FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE MODELS BREAK REGIMENT BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 130 132 150 155 165 170 172.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG OCT 06