Small Craft Advisory 945, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON OCT 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA THIS WEEKEND HAS NOW PUSHED EASTWARD INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORIES. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD AND DIMINISH.
A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING SEA WILL RETROGRADE INTO
EASTERN RUSSIA AS THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON SOULIK...CURRENTLY WELL
SOUTH OF ATTU...WILL MOVE SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WARM SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND MOVES
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GULF INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONE THING
TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM IS TO MAKE SURE IT DOES NOT STRENGTHEN IN
THE GULF AREA AND BEND FURTHER TO THE LEFT IN ITS TRACK WHICH WOULD
PUT IT CLOSER TO THE NORTH GULF COAST. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE LACK OF COLD AIR TO FEED INTO IT FROM EASTERN RUSSIA.
HOWEVER SINCE THIS IS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM IT STILL MERITS
WATCHING.

THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR
AS A SECONDARY LOW HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND MOVES
NORTHWARD. THIS SECONDARY LOW IS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN IT AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST AND BRINGING GALE FORCE
WINDS TO THIS AREA.

MODELS ARE DOING WELL IN THE NEAR TERM WITH MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
TODAY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF SOULIK SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND EVEN
INTO THE GULF. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK
WITH THE BIGGEST ISSUE BEING WHEN THE TRIPLE POINT LOW BECOMES THE
MAIN LOW SOMETIME FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN IT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 170 171 172 175  176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 06