Small Craft Advisory 941, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN OCT 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE LOW IN THE BERING SEA IT THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER
TODAY. THIS LOW IN IN THE LOWER 960S AND CENTERED JUST A LITTLE WEST
OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT EXTENDS
FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA SOUTHWARD TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS
SYSTEM BROUGHT HIGH WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LOW WILL PROCEED NORTHWARD
RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT AND END UP NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND BEFORE
HEADING INTO EASTERN RUSSIA AND WEAKENING BY MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF WIND IN THIS SYSTEM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THAT
BORDERS THE BERING SEA. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA EXTENDS UP INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT OF A DIRTY RIDGE AS
CIRRUS PERSISTS IN OVERRUNNING THE RIDGE AND MAKING CONDITIONS IN
SOUTH CENTRAL PARTLY CLOUDY INSTEAD OF SUNNY. THE LARGE STORM IN THE
BERING SEA IS THE SOURCE OF THE CIRRUS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE GULF BY TUESDAY IN THE MOVEMENT OF A LOW THAT THE
EUROPEAN MODELS WANT TO PUSH INTO THE NORTH GULF. THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH WANT TO KEEP IT WEAK AND KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE GULF. THIS SEEMS
THE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN
OLD TYPHOON THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR JAPAN AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS BY TUESDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM WHILE
THE EUROPEAN MODELS DO NOT AND THAT VERY WELL MAY BE INFLUENCING
THEIR TRACK IN THE GULF AS WELL. THE OLD TYPHOON SHOULD TRACK SOUTH
OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THEREFORE THE GFS SOLUTION IS THE PREFERRED ONE
AT THIS TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING 155
MARINE...GALE 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 180 185.
         STORM 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

OCT 06