Small Craft Advisory 929, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE OCT 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A DEEP LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA...AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTH TOWARDS THE TROPICS. FUELED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...THE
SUDDENLY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IS BRINGING UP WARM ABUNDANT MOISTURE
FROM LOWER LATITUDES AND DROPPING IT ON THE EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA.

.UPPER LEVELS...
A LOOK AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SHOWS A SLOW MOVING FIVE WAVE
PATTERN...WITH A DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER THE BERING SEA. THIS LOW WILL
BEGIN TO FILL IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. IF THE LONG TERM MODELS
HOLD TRUE...MUCH OF ALASKA WILL ENJOY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GOOD
WEATHER.

.MODELS...
ALL MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED RELATIVELY WELL TODAY. GFS NAM AND UKMET
ALL SPLIT THE SURFACE LOW INTO TWO TONIGHT...WITH BOTH OF THEM
PULLING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE ARCTIC OCEAN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DIFFERENCE IN INTENSITIES ON THE LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS...BY WEDNESDAY EVENING GFS HAS THE LOW A GOOD 10 MB
STRONGER THAN THE NAM...WITH THE UKMET LEANING MORE TOWARDS GFS. GFS
HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS
IT.

.EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
FLOODING CONDITIONS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SHOULD PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE TROPICAL FEED SLIDES TOWARDS THE ALASKA
PANHANDLE. THE SYSTEM WILL THROW A SHORTWAVE INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OUT BY THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY SETTING UP A NICE WEEKEND AS A HIGH
BUILDS UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONG SURFACE EASTERLIES THAT HAVE
GRIPPED MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD SLACKEN WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LOW
WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO PRIMARILY AFFECT
KODIAK.

.WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...
AS THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE ON OUT
NORTHWARD...THE GALES OUT IN THE BERING SEA SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEATHER IN THE BERING AND ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS THROUGH MORNING. THE TYPICAL MARINE STRATUS WILL FOLLOW. A
LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR SIBERIA WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING THURSDAY
AND HELP MOVE THE HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL ENSUE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNINGS 131 135 145...COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS 155 161
MARINE...GALES 130 138 140 155 160 176 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DANG OCT 06