Small Craft Advisory 902, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT MON OCT 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA AND INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC THAT IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THREE LOWS
IN THAT AREA..ONE NEAR KISKA ISLAND...ONE LESS THAN 200 MILES TO THE
SOUTH OF UNALASKA ISLAND AND ONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS. A
DISSIPATING LOW IS STILL VISIBLE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR DILLINGHAM. THIS LOW HAS PUSHED ITS FRONT THROUGH THE
GULF OVERNIGHT AND NOW NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE BRISTOL BAY AREA.

THE WRF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER IN MODEL AGREEMENT. ALL
MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING WELL ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW OUT OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN HOWEVER WRF WAS NOWHERE NEAR THE LOW AS WELL AS
WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PRIBILOFS. WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTION FOR GUIDANCE.

THE THREE LOWS WILL ROTATE AROUND AND BECOME ONE MAIN LOW ONCE THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW CROSSES THE ALEUTIANS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE
EASTERN BERING THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONGER NORTHPAC
LOW AND THE SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE GALE FORCE WINDS TO AREAS OF ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
AND BERING SEA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH THE AID OF THE
COLD ADVECTION.

AS THE NORTHPAC LOW TAKES OVER AND BECOMES STRONGER TODAY...IT WILL
PUSH A FRONT UP THE GULF AND THE AKPEN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  THIS
FRONT WILL BRING MUCH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WITH IT DUE TO THE DEEP
UPPER LOW REACHING DOWN TO THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. WITH
OUR POSITION UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THIS SYSTEM...THE
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP THE PRECIP FALLING AS RAIN. THE
NORTH GULF COAST WILL RECEIVE MOST OF THIS HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT HOWEVER INLAND AREAS WILL RECEIVE A GOOD AMOUNT AS WELL
DUE TO THE LARGER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THIS SYSTEM. WITH THE
CONTINUED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN BERING...EXPECT
EAST-WEST ORIENTED CHANNELED TERRAIN ON THE MAINLAND TO HAVE STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...LOOK FOR A RIDGE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS
AHEAD OF TWO MORE LOWS...ONE FROM RUSSIA AND ONE FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC...BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. THE RIDGE SHOULD REACH THE
MAINLAND BY THURSDAY NIGHT TO GIVE A BREAK FROM THE WET WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR OCT 06