Small Craft Advisory 892, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT THU SEP 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC SCALE...THE MAIN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA. EXPECT THIS UPPER CENTER TO ROTATE NORTH MERGING INTO THE MAIN
ARCTIC UPPER LOW AS A SECOND UPPER LOW THEN ROTATES INTO THE BERING
SEA FROM THE WEST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE TO TRANSIT THROUGH WESTERN THEN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA FRI. BY
SUN THE UPPER LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FIRMLY IN LACE OVER THE BERING
SEA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THE
NET RESULT IS WE EXPECT THE CLOUDY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE MESO SCALE AND SHORTER TERM THE LOW NOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INLAND NEAR CAPE YAKATAGA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN
ALASKA TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST MOIST FLOW
OFF THE BERING SEA. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
SOUTH CENTRAL REGION BY FRI AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OR SHOWERS UP FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUT WEST WE EXPECT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT NOW OFF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO MOVE EAST AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA FRI NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL MOVE TO WEST OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS ITS FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA.

HYDROLOGY...THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ZONE 135 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
MODERATE RAIN ENDED AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS ENDED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
A STRONG LONGER DURATION SOUTHWEST FETCH ACROSS THE BERING SEA IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY. THIS COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL STORM SURGE LATE SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 176 175. GALE WARNING 130 172 170 171 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SAM SEP 06