Small Craft Advisory 878, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON SEP 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA TODAY.
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF SAND POINT MOVES
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE JET STREAM IS VISIBLE ON THE IR SATELLITE EXTENDING FROM OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO NEAR 35N BEFORE MAKING A SHARP
TURN NORTH AND HEADING STRAIGHT FOR KODIAK ISLAND. THIS JET WILL
BRING CLOUDS INTO MAINLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN LIKELY ALONG THE
GULF OF ALASKA COAST AND THE KENAI PENINSULA AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY.
ALSO VISIBLE ON THE IR SATELLITE IS THE TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPING SOUTH
OF KODIAK. THIS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW OVERNIGHT AND THE
ORIGINAL LOW SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS THE LARGE LOW THAT IS THE REMNANTS OF SUPER
TYPHOON YAGI. THIS SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF SHEMYA AND WILL DEEPEN
OVERNIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM REALLY BEARS WATCHING
TO MAKE SURE IT DOES NOT STRENGTHEN FASTER AND DEEPER THAN THE MODELS
INDICATE. THIS COMMONLY HAPPENS WITH EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEMS. ONE
STRIKE AGAINST THIS HOWEVER IS THE LACK OF AVAILABLE COLD AIR IN
EASTERN RUSSIA THAT CAN BE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THE TIME OF
GREATEST CONCERN IS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

THIS LOW WILL THEN START TO WEAKEN AND MOVE TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THURSDAY. ONE FEATURE OF THIS LOW IS THAT THE JET STREAM
WILL MISS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND GO OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THOUGH
THERE WILL BE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR QUITE A BIT OF RAIN THE HEAVIEST
RAIN SHOULD HEAD TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH THE JET STREAM.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THOUGH THE GFS ECMWF AND NAM ARE MUCH CLOSER TO BEING IN AGREEMENT ON
FORMER TYPHOON YAGI THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO ITS
STRENGTH AND HOW FAST IT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A REASONABLE SOLUTION.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 191.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 170 172.
         STORM 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEP 06