Small Craft Advisory 85, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST FRI JAN 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WERE
USED WITH EAST DOMAIN LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND WEST LEANING TOWARD
THE ETA.

UPPER AIR...A VERY STABLE PATTERN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF ALASKA WITH
THE JET STREAM WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN PLAYER IS AN
UPPER LOW SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND
HEADING TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA BY 6Z SATURDAY MORNING. IT THEN
ENTERS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MEANDERS THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FEATURE WILL FORCE THE JET STREAM FURTHER SOUTH AND AMPLIFY THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

SURFACE...COLD...COLD...COLD. ARCTIC AIR HAS A STRANGLE HOLD ON MOST
OF ALASKA. -50S WIDESPREAD IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WITH -30S COMMON
IN OUR WESTERN INTERIOR ZONES. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPPER
PATTERN TRANSLATES TO ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE. UPPER
LOW MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL INVIGORATE THE WANING SURFACE
LOW NOW JUST SOUTH OF SEWARD. THIS WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR AND SOUTHCENTRAL. THE SAVING GRACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL INCLUDING THE COASTAL ZONES SHOULD BE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE TOLERABLE. THE
LOW STRATUS  WILL GIVE WAY TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
LIGHT SNOW FOR COASTAL AREAS.

THE TIGHT TEMPERATURE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN
RANGES WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE GAP WINDS. WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
ZERO...THE WIND CHILL WILL REACH ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THOMPSON PASS
AND IN ZONE 145.

FURTHER WEST...ICE EDGE CONTINUES TO MARCH SOUTH TOWARD THE
PRIBILOFS. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA
WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVES BRINGING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...STORM 130...GALES 132 150 176.

AB30