Small Craft Advisory 841, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT FRI SEP 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...

...SUMMARY...
A NEARLY STATIONARY 990 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA IS
DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER ALASKA TODAY. PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE
AND SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND MAINLY THE EAST SIDE OF THIS
LOW...BRINGING ABUNDANT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING
WILL FINALLY SHEAR APART AND WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...AND A NEW JET MAX
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF A NEW LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE
WEEKEND...MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA WILL BE UNDER A COL IN THE
FLOW...MEANING FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER. A NEW LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE STRONG AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AND MONDAY....AND WILL BECOME THE MAIN FEATURE OF
INTEREST FOR THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

...SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA/KODIAK ISLAND FORECAST...
STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST COASTAL AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY
AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THE TRICK IS FIGURING OUT HOW FAR EAST
AND HOW FAR INLAND THE PRECIPITATION CAN PENETRATE TODAY AND
SATURDAY. DO BELIEVE THAT EVENTUALLY THE PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
EAST TO CORDOVA AND VALDEZ...ALTHOUGH HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
THERE. SOME PRECIPITATION IS SPILLING NORTH OVER THE KENAI MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...BUT BELIEVE THAT FROM THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN FROM KENAI AND ANCHORAGE NORTH WILL BE LIMITED AS THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY. ALSO OF
CONCERN ARE WINDS. ALONG THE TURNAGAIN ARM AT MCHUGH CREEK THERE WAS
A 75 MPH GUST THURSDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE SAME TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FRIDAY
NIGHT. WILL NOT GO WITH ANY WARNINGS FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE WINDS. THE POSITION
OF THE LOW OVER THE GULF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO WHERE MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL HAVE DRY
CONDITIONS.

...SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ALASKA/ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA FORECAST...
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WET
WEATHER FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TO THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH GALES IN MANY OF THE MARINE ZONES.
THE LOW WILL THEN SHEAR APART SATURDAY...WITH A WEAK LOW OVER NORTON
SOUND AND THE STRONGER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND WILL BE IN A BREAK BETWEEN THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...MEANING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER. A NEW LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
STRENGTHEN INTO MONDAY. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING STORM
FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON MONDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 155 165 170 171 172 180 185 350 499
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY SEP 06