Small Craft Advisory 826, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE SEP 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE UPCOMING
LOW AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER THEY DIFFER IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. UKMET
WEAKENS IT QUICKLY TO 996 MB AT 60 HRS BUT GFS KEEPS IT AT A HEALTHY
986 MB WHILE THE NAM FALLS IN BETWEEN. WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS FOR
NOW AS IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT SO FAR. HOWEVER WILL NEED TO
WATCH IT IN LATER RUNS TO SEE IF THE OTHER MODELS ARE WEAKENING THE
MAIN LOW ONLY TO FORM A SECONDARY LOW WHICH THE GFS HAS NOT YET
PICKED UP ON.

SUMMARY..HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MAINLAND AS IT MOVES EAST
TODAY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GULF TONIGHT AND WED. A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER RUSSIA WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING TONIGHT AND WED. AS THIS LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST IT WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE IN THE GULF TO FLATTEN WED. A GALE
FORCE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS WEEK. THIS WILL
BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR AK.

IN THE EAST..UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH LOOK FOR FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT
EXPERIENCED SHOWERS ON MON. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO AFFECT THE TALKEETNA RANGE. OTHERWISE THE
PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE STABLE AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE
COMPLETELY ON WED. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO KODIAK LATE WED
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS NORTH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE WEST..THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE FAR WEST WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND BERING TONIGHT AND WED. GALES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE NORTHWEST BERING. OTHERWISE..STILL UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY AND
WED THE REST OF THE WEST WILL BE DEALING WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. EXPECT THIS TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE MAINLAND AFTER THE MORNING.
PRECIP AND GALES WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND BRISTOL BAY
BEGINNING WED AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY 141.
MARINE...GALES 150 155 170 171 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW SEP 06