Small Craft Advisory 825, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT MON SEP 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN GRADUALLY TRACKING EAST AND FILLING OVER THE
LAST WEEK IS CURRENTLY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE TODAY. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE WEST OF SITKA. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN COPPER
RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND THEN CLEARING OUT TUE.

A STRONG RIDGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING AND WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TWO UPCOMING SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE
MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER RUSSIA WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING TONIGHT AND TUE. THE SECOND
SYSTEM IS A LOW MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AS THIS
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER NORTH IT WILL CAUSE THE RIDGE TO ELONGATE NORTH
TO SOUTH ON WED AND THU.

IN THE EAST..SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH WED IN
SOUTHCENTRAL EXCEPT FOR SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS ALONG THE COAST IN
THE MORNINGS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING.
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE 60S BUT LOWS IN THE 30S
BECAUSE OF RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE MORNING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK A STRONG LOW IN THE BERING AND ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE GULF AND KODIAK AND..BY THU
INTO THE MAT-SU VALLEYS..KENAI PENINSULA AND ANCHORAGE BOWL.

IN THE WEST..EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG BENEATH THE RIDGE. WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN TODAY INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ANTICIPATE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH MAY DRIFT
SOUTH TOWARD ILIAMNA. SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUE
AND WED. THE MAIN POINT OF CONCERN IS THE SECOND SYSTEM WHICH WILL
BRING THE NEXT WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP TO THE ALEUTIANS..PRIBILOFS
AND THE WESTERN MAINLAND BEGINNING ON WED AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD ADVISORY 141.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW SEP 06