Small Craft Advisory 82, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST THU JAN 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH OF LOWS...SO EITHER ETA OR GFS WILL DO IN THE EAST.
OVER THE WESTERN DOMAIN...THE GFS WAS PREFERRED.

UPPER AIR...THE JET STREAM IS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL HAVE LITTLE
INFLUENCE OVER ALASKA WEATHER.  A NEAR-STATIONARY TROUGH IN NORTHERN
ALASKA WILL DEEPEN INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.  THIS SETUP WILL HELP STEER SURFACE LOWS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A BLOCKING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND AID IN
KEEPING THE PATTERN RELATIVELY UNCHANGING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE
RIDGE WILL ALSO KEEP THE COLD NORTHERLY WINDS FLOWING INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL.

SURFACE...A PERSISTENT LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN
THERE INTO SUNDAY.  THE MAIN CAUSE FOR CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE WIND THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER DELTA AND GAP WINDS.  MEANWHILE...A
SERIES OF LOWS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF AND MEANDER INTO
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.

OUT WEST...SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS WILL APPROACH THE ALEUTIAN ISLAND
CHAIN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP
THEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ARC AS THEY MAKE THEIR WAY EASTWARD.

NET RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT FROM AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.  PATCHY
FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE IN BOTH DOMAINS FOR DAYS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO REMAIN STABLE AND STAGNANT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 130 172 176.

TGD JAN 06