Small Craft Advisory 810, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT THU SEP 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAJOR STORM SYSTEM OUT WEST...REMNANTS OF TYPHOON IOKE HAVE BECOME A
DEEP 970 MB LOW IN THE BERING WITH NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THIS IS TECHNICALLY AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IT HAS LITTLE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND IS ALREADY BAROTROPIC IN NATURE.  THIS MEANS
THAT ONCE IT MOVES ONSHORE IT SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY.  STILL
THIS STORM PACKS A PRETTY GOOD PUNCH...WITH THE WINDS AND THE STORMS
SURGE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
BRISTOL BAY.  ELSEWHERE THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS
MORNING...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER A CONCERN BUT ALL THE
ALEUTIAN ZONES WILL HAVE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AND
A FEW OF THE MARINE ZONES WILL KEEP STORM WARNINGS IN FOR TONIGHT.
IN THE EAST CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS THE FIRST OF THE
FRONTAL BANDS PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL CAUSE CHANNELING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE TURNAGAIN ARM WHERE
STRONG WIND HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AS USUAL. DOWNSLOPING WILL PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RAIN FROM REACH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY
BUT THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE CAN EXPECT TO SEE A FAIR BIT
OF RAIN THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW. AS THIS LOW CROSSES THE AKPEN IT
WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY.

MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE RESOLVED ANY AGREEMENT
ISSUES FROM LAST NIGHT AND WERE FAIRLY IN STEP THIS MORNING FOR THE
FIRST 80 HRS.  NAM WAS CONSISTENTLY 2 TO 3 MB WEAKER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE LOW IN THE BERING AND WINDS WERE ABOUT 5 KTS TOO WEAK
ACCORDINGLY.  HOWEVER PLACEMENT LOOKED GOOD FOR INITIALIZATION FOR
BOTH MODELS.  FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING
WHEN THE NAM MOVES THE LOW 2 TO 3 DEGREES EAST OF THE GFS AS IT
CROSSES THE AKPEN AND MOVES INTO THE GULF.  BY SUNDAY MORNING THE
SOLUTIONS DIFFER SLIGHTLY WITH THE NAM SHOWING THE LOW CENTER 150 NM
NORTHEAST OF THE GFS...GFS IS PROBABLY A BETTER BET WITH THIS TRACK
AS IT HAS BEEN TRENDING WELL AND SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
SYSTEM.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...CFW 155 161
MARINE...STORM 179 185
         GALE 155 165 180 171 172 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEWF SEP 06