Small Craft Advisory 787, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU AUG 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF
THE STATE CONTINUES TO BRING WET WEATHER FROM THE ALASKA RANGE
EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL EDGE EASTWARD
INTO THE TROUGH BY WEEKEND. AS THIS RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVES WILL PROPAGATE DOWN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. BY THIS WEEKEND THIS RIDGE WILL DISPLACE THE TROUGH
OVER WESTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.
THE RESULT WILL BE FOR THE TROUGH FORMING A CUT OFF LOW IN THE GULF
OF ALASKA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA...ALASKA PENINSULA...AN EASTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL
BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO PARTS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND THEN THEY
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FRIDAY.

GFS AND NAM MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. ONLY BIG DIFFERENCE
IS THE HANDLING OF THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE LOW WILL BE A
BROAD COMPLEX LOW. THE NAM TRIES TO RESOLVE THE INDIVIDUAL LOWS WHILE
THE GFS SMOOTHS THEM OUT. SUBTLETIES IN THESE DIFFERENCES MAY AFFECT
KODIAK MINIMALLY BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE
FORECAST NO MATTER WHICH ONE IS USED. THAT BEING SAID THE GFS WAS THE
MAIN MODEL USED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECASTS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AUG 06