Small Craft Advisory 776, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE AUG 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM RUNNING ALONG NICELY AT 50
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. POLAR JET IS SKIRTING THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE STATE...STEERED BY AN UPPER LOW ALMOST OVER THE POLE. IT LESS
ACTIVE THAN HAS BEEN TYPICAL THIS SUMMER...AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR
IN THE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.

A VIGOROUS LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON IS MOVING
QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE WEAK RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL ALASKA WILL CONCEDE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THIS LOW MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE LOW WILL BE
CENTERED IN BRISTOL BAY AND FULLY SPUN UP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH THE JUICY OCCLUDED FRONT RACING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KODIAK
EARLY IN THE DAY AND TO THE GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
RESPECTABLE RAINFALL RATES EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WITH DIMINISHING
AMOUNTS INLAND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH TO ABOUT TALKEETNA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN BREAK APART OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY AS THE JET DYNAMICS BY THAT TIME WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
WELL INTO (OR EVEN THROUGH) THE WEEKEND. FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...A
STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND CONDITIONS LOOK DRY FROM
FRIDAY...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...PKZ120 125 130 132 155 165 170 179 180
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG AUG 06