Small Craft Advisory 752, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT THU AUG 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
UPPER LOWS OVER THE AKPEN AND WESTERN ALASKA...AND A WEAKER LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN BERING. FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS FROM KAMCHATKA TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND
HAS AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT WHICH CROSSES KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
AKPEN...EXTENDS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL.

GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE ALTHOUGH THE NAM HAS A HANDLE ON THINGS
FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL MOVE NORTH INTO ZONE 145 TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT
PASSES...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE KENAI AND ANCHORAGE AREAS
TONIGHT WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FRI. HEAVIEST PRECIP IS TAKING AIM AT
THE NORTH GULF COAST PRIMARILY EAST OF SEWARD. THIS WILL ALSO CROSS
THE CHUGACH INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. THIS PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF
LATER ON FRIDAY. ON FRI NIGHT THE NEXT BERING SEA LOW WILL REACH THE
AKPEN AND BRING LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES SAT. THIS SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD BE LESS INTENSE THAN THE CURRENT EVENT SINCE
THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW IS SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY PLACE THE GREATEST PRECIP AREA OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK FINDS A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN
ZONES...SO SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MON AND TUE.

IN THE WEST...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH TODAYS LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA TONIGHT. A BRIEF BREAK FOR WESTERN AK WILL END FRI
MORNING AS THE BERING LOW HEADS FOR THE AKPEN. PRECIP WILL END SAT
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST. A MASSIVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
THE BERING FRI THROUGH SUN MORNING WITH DRY BUT FOGGY CONDITIONS. THE
NEXT KAMCHATKA LOW BRINGS A FRONT ACROSS THE WESTER ALEUTIANS LATE
SAT WHICH WEAKENS AS IT REACHES WESTERN ALASKA SUN EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND SOME GALES TO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS SAT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
ALEUTIANS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS AUG 06