Small Craft Advisory 746, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT TUE AUG 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY BUT THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BEYOND THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. THE PREFERRED MODEL
IS STILL THE GFS.

UPPER AIR...THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR WILL MOVE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE
EAST DOMAIN...A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY, KENAI
PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
YUKON TERRITORY AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK TRIPLE
POINT LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER COOK INLET THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE SOUTH OF CORDOVA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A MODERATE LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA WILL BECOME SHOWERS
THIS EVENING. RAIN OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF TONIGHT THEN TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF
RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS FALLING ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SOME CLEARING ON
THURSDAY.

AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL SPREAD INTO THE KENAI
PENINSULA, KODIAK ISLAND AND THE GULF LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR KODIAK ISLAND, KENAI PENINSULA
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WESTERN DOMAIN...
A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN BERING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE Y-K DELTA COAST
AND SOUTHEAST BERING SEA THURSDAY. A LOW OVER CENTRAL RUSSIA WILL
MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ANADYR THURSDAY.
THE WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RUSSIAN LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE PRIBILOFS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RAIN OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL END THIS EVENING BUT WILL BEGIN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY, MATANUSKA VALLEY,
SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND, AND NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM AUG 06