Small Craft Advisory 730, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 AM ADT SAT AUG 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS..WRF CONTINUES TO MOVE THE COLD FRONT TOO FAST ON 00Z
RUN..WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS OF UKMET AND GFS ON SYSTEM FLOW FOR
CURRENT FROPA. 48 TO 60 HRS IS MORE CHALLENGING OUT WEST..CURRENTLY
GOING WITH GFS SOLUTION TO GENERATE A LOW OFF A TRIPLE POINT NEAR
RUSSIA AND MOVE IT ACROSS THE BERING AND INTO THE GULF. UKMET
EVENTUALLY COMES BACK INTO ALIGNMENT WITH GFS BY 60 HRS.

SUMMARY..TWO SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TODAY..THE FIRST IS A STRONG FROPA
THAT IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE TALKEETNA MTNS TO KODIAK
BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHCENTRAL AK.
THIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY OVER THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY AND WEAKEN.
850 MB TEMPS STILL COOL BEHIND FROPA FROM THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY INTO
THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY BY SUN. THE SECOND IS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BERING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT A SFC LOW TO
DEVELOP NEAR RUSSIA TODAY AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO BRISTOL BAY BEFORE
CROSSING THE AK PENN SUN.

AER..ANTICIPATE RAIN INTENSITY TO TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS TODAY. STILL
WATCHING FOR MORE FLOODING IN THE SUSITNA AND MATANUSKA VALLEYS WITH
MANY RIVERS AT OR NEAR BANKFULL. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SMALL STREAMS TO BE AT ADVISORY STAGE IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA THIS
MORNING SO MAY NEED AN URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPS
WITH CAA SHOULD BE MODERATED OVERNIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA. MOST OF THE CAA SHOULD BACK UP AGAINST THE AK RANGE TONIGHT.

ALU..FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHWEST AK EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE PRECIP BY SUN MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG WILL
REMAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH WESTERLY FLOW AT
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A FLAT RIDGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 111 145
         FLOOD ADVISORY 141 145.
MARINE...GALES 155 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW AUG 06