Small Craft Advisory 698, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT WED AUG 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA THE
LAST FEW DAYS IS WEAKENING AND MOVING EASTWARD AS THE LOW IN THE
BERING SEA PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.
AREAS OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION WITH
PRECIPITATION OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND MATANUSKA VALLEY THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE BERING SEA LOW IS BRING SOME RAIN
AND A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. RAIN SHOULD
INCREASE AS THE LOW BECOMES A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO MOST
AREAS OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THEREFORE INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION.

THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAINLAND PORTION OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN IN
THE BERING SEA LATE IN THE WEEK AND THEN MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS THE ONLY PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CLOUDS WITH THE
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA ARE ONLY NOW MOVING INTO
THE COPPER RIVER AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO ALLOW SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR IN THE UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS STILL OVER THE BASIN. BY THURSDAY
ENOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE OVER THE COPPER RIVER AREA THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT OCCUR.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THIS MORNINGS RUNS. AS OFTER IS THE
CASE THE GFS CAN BE USED FOR THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH THE NAM HELPING
WITH THE DETAILS CAUSED BY LOCAL EFFECTS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 155 170.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

AUG 06