Small Craft Advisory 669, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT JUL 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODEL HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS
STILL RATHER GOOD.

THE MAIN UPPER LOW NEAR KOTZEBUE WILL MOVE NORTH TO BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE CHUKCHI SEA TONIGHT. A SECOND WEAKER
UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE TWO LOW WILL WESTERN
ALASKA SUNDAY AND WILL COVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR MONDAY.

THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL MIRROR THE UPPER PATTERN. THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR WILL BECOME STACKED UNDER THE UPPER
LOW NORTH OF THE CHUKCHI SEA THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA TONIGHT AND INTO WESTERN ALASKA
SUNDAY. AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA, A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
MONDAY.

IN GENERAL, THE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE THROUGH MONDAY AND WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA AND
THE GULF THROUGH MONDAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SCTTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
SUSITNA VALLEY AND AND COPPER RIVER BASIN ON BOTH DAYS. SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA. THE PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG ALONF MOST OF THE COASTAL SECTIONS AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM JUL 06