Small Craft Advisory 623, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT MON JUL 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THE 250 MB JET IS JUST
SKIMMING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AS A LOW NEAR
KISKA BEGINS TO DEEPEN. THE OLD LOW SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL THE LOW NEAR KISKA MOVES EASTWARD AND ABSORBS
IT SOUTH OF SAND POINT TUESDAY EVENING. THIS LOW WILL THEN FURTHER
STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 987 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO AROUND
350 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AT THAT TIME.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE JET STREAM WILL STILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS BUT WILL BE HEADING SOUTHEAST AROUND THE LOW SOUTH OF
KODIAK AT THAT POINT. THE JET WILL THEN BEND BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AS IT SWINGS AROUND THE LOW. THE RESULTANT
PATTERN WILL BE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE STATE FROM MID
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA IS STILL PRESENT
BUT IS EDGING EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ON SHORE FLOW
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST RESULTING IN MARINE STRATUS AND AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN. IT IS ALSO CONTINUING TO PRODUCE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS THROUGH GAPS IN THE MOUNTAINS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM AND UP THE
COPPER RIVER.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP IN INLAND AREAS BUT THE FIRST CHANCE OF ANY THUNDER
APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY...AND EVEN THAT DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. GFS LOOKS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
SOLUTION IN MOVING THE MERGED LOW INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA MID WEEK.
THE NAM APPEARS A BIT FAST BUT IT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT OF THE
FORECAST AREAS AS THE LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THAT
TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 132 138 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUL 06