Small Craft Advisory 622, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN JUL 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CENTERED NEAR BARROW
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND IS BRING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA.
THE 250 MB JET STREAM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND
EXTENDS ALONG THE 50N PARALLEL UNTIL IT TURNS SOUTHEAST AND GREATLY
WEAKENS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A CHANGE IN THIS PATTERN IS
COMING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TO AROUND 50N
155W WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BEND THE JET STREAM SOUTHWARD AROUND IT AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE MAINLAND PORTION OF THE STATE.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE THIS WEEK.

SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
OF ALASKA AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR OF THE STATE. A LOW NORTHWEST
OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST BEFORE BEING ABSORBED
INTO A STRENGTHENING LOW THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR KAMCHATKA AND WAS
MENTIONED ABOVE. BY THURSDAY THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND TO HAVE STRENGTHENED TO AROUND 990 MB.

THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL DIMINISH
AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JUL 06