Small Craft Advisory 583, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT MON JUL 3 2006

.DISCUSSION...NAM/GFS/UKMET SYNOPTIC INITIALIZATIONS ARE REASONABLE
AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT. NAM FORECAST TREND DIVERGES FROM OTHER TWO
MEMBERS ON ALEUTIAN COMPLEX BY 48 HOURS. SOLUTIONS MERGE 60-72 HOURS.

.UPPER AIR...OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN AND FLATTEN SOME AS LONG WAVE DIGS
WEST FROM CANADA ARCTIC TO THE NORTHWEST COAST. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...RIDGE PORTION OF OMEGA MOVES INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA SAT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE ALEUTIAN LOW TO MOVE TO THE AK PEN EARLY SUN. THIS
SHOULD SIGNAL A CHANGE TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN FOR THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

.EAST...SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...COPPER RIVER
BASIN...AND NORTH GULF COAST. AIR SHOULD BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. EXPECT
MOST SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION WILL END OVERNIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH
STRENGTHENS OVER THE INTERIOR TUE AND WED. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AND FAIRLY BRISK SEABREEZES ALONG
COASTAL LOCALS.

.WEST...STRATUS AND FOG LIKELY CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
OVER THE DELTA...BRISTOL BAY...AND EASTERN BERING SEA AS RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE INTERIOR TUE
AND WED. MAY SEE A SHOT A EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
AND INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY ZONES WED. CURRENTLY MAIN LOW CENTER SOUTH
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL GENERATE GALES THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
SECONDARY DEVELOPS...EXPECT GALES TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT AND WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 172...175...AND 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RMC JUL 06